Michiko Kawai's "Today's Strategy" 2017/10/11
USD/JPY (as of 9:00: 112.35-37)
USD/JPY: Buy on dips policy remains in place. Be mindful of resistance at 113.30-113.40. Cross/Yen looks mildly firm. Also watch the upside resistance.
The most recent daily candle closed lower, but it has bounced off the 21-day moving average at 112.01, preserving downside support. It has not reached the light resistance at 112.90-113.00, and there is a sense of downside pressure, but the rebound from failing to test lower increases the potential for higher levels, and with no sign of a short-term trend change, we should watch the upside resistance at 113.30-113.40 while continuing the USD buy-the-dips stance.
The short-term trend would revert to neutral if it breaks below 111.00.
Today’s USD buying: buy on dips around 112.20-112.30. If you want a shallower stop, exit at 111.70; if you want a deeper stop, exit at 111.40. We will stay on the sidelines on selling.
On the daily chart, upside resistance is at 113.30-113.40 and 114.20-114.30, and downside support is at 112.00-112.10, 111.50-111.60, 111.00-111.10.
EUR/USD is edging higher in a small advance. It has held the 1.17-area downside resistance and is nudging higher, but has not broken out of the downtrend, so euro downside risk remains higher. We will stay on the sidelines for buying. For selling, target 1.1820-1.1830 on a pullback. If you want to keep stops shallow, exit at 1.1860. If the move is deeper, you may need to place the short-term trend back to neutral at 1.1910.
EUR/JPY continues to rise. Not a currency with strong upside momentum on its own, but there is a strong downside resistance in the 132.00-132.20 zone; as long as it does not break through and close below this, downside space remains limited. Since no trend change is evident, buy on dips is on hold, but upside potential may slightly widen, so selling on a one-day basis or a return sale if it surpasses 133.50-133.60. Stop at 134.30. Until price closes above 134.30 or clears resistance at 134.50-134.60, downside risk remains.
GBP/USD continues higher. It has been bounced by the strong lower resistance in the 1.3000-1.3050 zone, lifting the downside, but has not broken out of the down-up flow, so downside risk remains higher. We'll stay on the sidelines for buying. For selling, look to sell at 1.3220-1.3230. Stop at 1.3260 for a shallow exit. If hit, revert to neutral, but until a daily candle closes above 1.3400, downside risk remains.
GBP/JPY ends with a small bullish candle and continues a move to test upside, but a complete corrective move is not yet in place; until the daily closes above 149.60, downside risk remains to be wary. Buy on dips on hold. For selling, either watch for a one-day move or place a stop at 150.10 and target a retrace-sell around 148.80-149.0.
AUD/JPY is a small rebound. The upper wick is a bit long, indicating failure to push higher, and it remains in a pattern where upside is being capped; watch for resistance around 87.60-87.80. We'll stay on the sidelines for buying. There is somewhat strong downside resistance at 87.00-87.10. For selling, either stay on the sidelines or lightly sell at 87.80-87.90, and take a shallow exit at 88.20.
（USD/JPY）
Resistance: 112.50-112.60, 112.90-113.00, 113.30-113.40, 113.60-113.70, 113.80-113.90, 114.20-114.30
Support: 112.20-112.30, 112.00-112.10, 111.70-111.80, 111.50-111.60, 111.00-111.10
USD/JPY: Buy on dips policy remains in place. Be mindful of resistance at 113.30-113.40. Cross/Yen looks mildly firm. Also watch the upside resistance.
The most recent daily candle closed lower, but it has bounced off the 21-day moving average at 112.01, preserving downside support. It has not reached the light resistance at 112.90-113.00, and there is a sense of downside pressure, but the rebound from failing to test lower increases the potential for higher levels, and with no sign of a short-term trend change, we should watch the upside resistance at 113.30-113.40 while continuing the USD buy-the-dips stance.
The short-term trend would revert to neutral if it breaks below 111.00.
Today’s USD buying: buy on dips around 112.20-112.30. If you want a shallower stop, exit at 111.70; if you want a deeper stop, exit at 111.40. We will stay on the sidelines on selling.
On the daily chart, upside resistance is at 113.30-113.40 and 114.20-114.30, and downside support is at 112.00-112.10, 111.50-111.60, 111.00-111.10.
EUR/USD is edging higher in a small advance. It has held the 1.17-area downside resistance and is nudging higher, but has not broken out of the downtrend, so euro downside risk remains higher. We will stay on the sidelines for buying. For selling, target 1.1820-1.1830 on a pullback. If you want to keep stops shallow, exit at 1.1860. If the move is deeper, you may need to place the short-term trend back to neutral at 1.1910.
EUR/JPY continues to rise. Not a currency with strong upside momentum on its own, but there is a strong downside resistance in the 132.00-132.20 zone; as long as it does not break through and close below this, downside space remains limited. Since no trend change is evident, buy on dips is on hold, but upside potential may slightly widen, so selling on a one-day basis or a return sale if it surpasses 133.50-133.60. Stop at 134.30. Until price closes above 134.30 or clears resistance at 134.50-134.60, downside risk remains.
GBP/USD continues higher. It has been bounced by the strong lower resistance in the 1.3000-1.3050 zone, lifting the downside, but has not broken out of the down-up flow, so downside risk remains higher. We'll stay on the sidelines for buying. For selling, look to sell at 1.3220-1.3230. Stop at 1.3260 for a shallow exit. If hit, revert to neutral, but until a daily candle closes above 1.3400, downside risk remains.
GBP/JPY ends with a small bullish candle and continues a move to test upside, but a complete corrective move is not yet in place; until the daily closes above 149.60, downside risk remains to be wary. Buy on dips on hold. For selling, either watch for a one-day move or place a stop at 150.10 and target a retrace-sell around 148.80-149.0.
AUD/JPY is a small rebound. The upper wick is a bit long, indicating failure to push higher, and it remains in a pattern where upside is being capped; watch for resistance around 87.60-87.80. We'll stay on the sidelines for buying. There is somewhat strong downside resistance at 87.00-87.10. For selling, either stay on the sidelines or lightly sell at 87.80-87.90, and take a shallow exit at 88.20.
（USD/JPY）
Resistance: 112.50-112.60, 112.90-113.00, 113.30-113.40, 113.60-113.70, 113.80-113.90, 114.20-114.30
Support: 112.20-112.30, 112.00-112.10, 111.70-111.80, 111.50-111.60, 111.00-111.10
Michiko Kawai's "Today’s Strategy"
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