The translation of the provided HTML to English (keeping HTML format and not adding line breaks): "Everything becomes FX" Week-by-week trades that no one can say Vol.005
This "Investment Navi+" is a report delivered every Sunday by the team that contends with money management under the motto "Everything becomes FX."
I would like to share not only matters related to FX markets but also money matters, by delivering to a limited audience the weekly positions I personally hold.
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▼Table of Contents
―1. Current Situation
―2. Global Finance
―3. Weekly Trades No One Can Tell Anyone About
―4. Next Week's Positions
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【PR】Turn FX losses into gains by using proper money management
Trading techniques that emphasize money management, which is often neglected in FX.
You can trade without being swayed by win rates or methods.
▼1. Current Situation
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The author-in-chief, "Everything Becomes FX," moves between domestic and international locations about half of each month. I would like to share which city I am in now, what I am watching, and whom I am meeting and working with domestically.
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This week I am in Bangkok. I am in Bangkok again this month. Personally, I feel it is a place that harmonizes well with culture such as people and food.
Now, while staying overseas or in regional areas, I conduct work online. Generally, I communicate via chat tools. However, when I need to hold meetings with many people at once or when talking is faster than text, I use video chat for work.
By the way, clients who insist on using the phone at all costs are not acceptable. That kind of insistence reflects an old-fashioned habit that ignores the other party's timing.
So, even during my Bangkok stay, if needed, I can work via video chat just as in Japan (despite a two-hour time difference).
In the future, businesses are likely to hire people less on a permanent basis and instead connect people on a project-by-project basis. This aligns with what Leadbetter Hoffmann’s work "ALLIANCE" also recommends.ALLIANCE
In a future where individual power is increasingly needed, it may be good to increase funds using financial instruments like FX. However, the key is not to投入 all funds at once but to proceed in parallel.
The era when pouring oneself into one thing was beautiful has ended. As author Hiroshi Mori once said, "Heaven does not grant two things; it is normal to grant three or more if you ignore others’ opinions," so let's not worry about what others think!
▼2. Global Finance
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Many FX participants spend time on fundamental and technical analysis.
However, ironically, about 90% of FX participants incur losses, and many end up leaving the market.
In this section, we will think about global finance while keeping some distance from those factors.
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This week, after risk-off momentum accelerated at the start of the week, the market once again shifted toward dollar buying, resulting in complex price moves. USD/JPY moved to the mid-112s.
For example, on a weekly chart the range between the open and close is almost unchanged (about 50 pips). But on a daily chart, you can see it going down and up repeatedly.
On shorter time frames, there are precise moves such as a decline during Monday New York time and a rise during Wednesday London time.
When broad, outsized trades don’t work, narrower, more precise trades can be effective (and the opposite can be true). So it is recommended to adjust not only the currency pair but also the time frame you trade.
Another topic is the flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin.
Recently, JPMorgan CEO described Bitcoin as a "scam." Meanwhile, the CEO of Morgan Stanley stated that it is "not just a fad."
Blockchain technology is not a fad and will likely advance further (fees for overseas remittances will become ridiculous), but it is true that speculative aspects are strong.
Additionally, the ECB vice president said, "Bitcoin is tulips."
More recently, RBC’s president said, "Bitcoin is not a scam."
There are various viewpoints (some are position-talk), but the fact remains that it is a hot topic.
And another point of interest is FX leverage regulation. The Nikkei reported, "Financial Services Agency to consider lowering FX margin requirements to around 10x."FX margin ratio to be lowered to about 10x, Financial Services Agency considering.
I will continue to monitor how this develops (I hope corporate accounts’ leverage rules are relaxed as well).
▼3. Weekly Trades No One Can Tell Anyone About
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A weekly trade that combines trend-following and contrarian positions with full money-management, known as "Weekly Trades No One Can Tell Anyone About."
Since its inception in 2012, it has not recorded a yearly loss and has achieved total gains of over +30,000 pips.
What is the secret to profitability with a 48% win rate? Here we present this week's trade results.
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・This week's result: -126 pips
・Cumulative result: +30,331 pips
【Weekly Trade Results】
・Win rate: 48.6%
・Average win: +839.6 pips
・Average loss: -580.1 pips
・Maximum win: +13,491 pips
・Maximum loss: -2,932 pips
・PF: 1.37
・PR: 1.45
"Weekly Trades No One Can Tell Anyone About" takes positions with an edge from the 1-hour, daily, and weekly charts based on price action. However, its essence lies more in money management than in the trading itself.
This method has a win rate of 48%. Because it feels like about 40% in "felt probability," it may not be suitable for those who require a win rate of 80% or higher. It is aimed at readers who consider long-term profitability.
