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Hiro Koya's 'From the Technical Room' 2017-09-25 08:06

Host: Hiro Koya

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Determining the Direction of Stock Prices

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The 5-day moving average smooths the movements of the daily line, which tends to have larger swings,

and is often used as a substitute for the daily line.

It is common. When the USD/JPY 5-day average slopes toward yen depreciation,

check the stock price highs and lows at those times,

the two move in nearly lockstep, as shown below.

The slope of the USD/JPY 5-day moving average appears to determine the Nikkei's direction,

and it is believed to decide. The USD/JPY depreciation direction

has been moving for about a month.

(USD/JPY, 5-day average, and stock price highs and lows)

USD/JPY (5-day average) Stock price

Yen high, Yen low, Days, Low, High

112.53 114.89 24 days 2/09 3/13

(2/09) (3/15)

108.78 113.79 14 days 4/14 5/11

(4/20) (5/15)

109.84 113.80 21 days 6/15 7/11

(6/12) (7/11)

108.68 ?

(9/08)

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Can the yen depreciation direction be sustained?

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　Currently, in just about two weeks from the yen's high on 9/08,

yen depreciation of more than 5 yen has progressed, contributing to stock price gains

However, in the last three days, the momentum of yen depreciation has been around the mid-112 yen range

and is pausing for a breather.

The slope of the 5-day line is determined by the USD/JPY rate from five days earlier.

(the rate)

(Rate from five days earlier)

　This week, whether we break into the 113 yen range or are pulled back to the 111 yen range will be determined by the USD/JPY slope, and, in turn, will determine the stock price direction. By the end of this week, whether we can maintain at least the 112 yen range is important for stocks.

Whether we can maintain at least the 112-yen level by week’s end is important for stock prices.

Stock-market internal indicators suggest that yen weakness and stock gains are pausing.

It is expected that. If the momentum of yen weakness and stock gains over the past two weeks stalls, a contrarian approach will be necessary.

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9/25 the slope of the USD/JPY 5-day moving average ＜Hiro Koya's 'From the Technical Room'＞