MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Aug.10 2021

1. Review
The Nikkei Stock Average ended the week at 27,820, up 536 points from the previous week. The week's low was exactly on the important turning day (August 4–5, ±3 business days) with a low of 27,488 on the 4th (Wednesday). The week's high was on the 6th (Friday) at 27,888. Since the closing price surpassed the weekly upper resistance line, sentiment was bullish. Furthermore, this closing price also surpassed the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the first time in six weeks, indicating a shift in the underlying trend from a “downtrend” to a neutral stance.

2. Cycles
As explained in my book Forecast 2021, the Nikkei Stock Average has a long-term market cycle of about 17 years. The starting point is 6,994 on October 28, 2008, and this year marks the 13th year since that starting point.

The 17-year cycle is divided into two 8.33-year cycles, with the front half ending at the “double bottom” of 14,864 on June 24, 2016 and 14,865 on February 12 of the same year. From here the latter half (the second 8.33-year cycle) has begun.

Furthermore, this 8.33-year cycle consists of two four-year cycles, forming the first four-year cycle bottom at 16,358 on March 19, 2020. The current four-year cycle is now in its 17th month from that starting point. Since the previous four-year cycle consisted of three 16-month cycles, the immediate task is to determine where the first 16-month cycle will bottom, which is the urgent matter at hand.