HL Time Analysis to Know Market Tops and Bottoms

If there were a tool that could tell you the market's bottom and peak, it would be a godsend.

But I know such a tool does not exist.

As the saying goes, "the end is the beginning and the beginning is the end," when you think you’ve hit the bottom, it keeps going down, and when you think it will rise, that point may have been the top...

I believe you should not rely on a sense of value.

However, when it comes to day trading that aims to make a profit within a single day, I think you need to change your thinking a little.

You should not rely on a sense of value, but it depends on the balance with time.

Please look at this chart.

This is the 5-minute chart of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Mothers futures on 2021/7/28.

The average of the monthly highs and lows for the Tokyo Stock Exchange Mothers futures is about 20P.

If you consider that as a reference, when you reach the blue line in the image, you would want to judge that the bottom is approaching.

However, there are still about 4 hours until the close of that day, and in this case it is not good to consider this line as the bottom yet.

As a result, the day's low occurred around 2:30 PM. In other words, 「the end is the beginning」 became true.

Thus, by considering the current price and the remaining time in the market, I think it becomes easier to grasp the market's bottom and top.

If the remaining time is long, the price is more likely to move further (or rebound); if the remaining time is short, price movement is not to be expected as much.

And here is the main point.

The appearance of the day's high and low is likely related to the time of day, and if you know roughly when the high or low will occur, it becomes easier to grasp the market's top and bottom and provides a reference for trading timing.

Therefore, I would like to publish data that records at what time the day's high and low occurred on a 5-minute basis.

The target is the Nikkei 225 futures and the Tokyo Mothers futures.

This time it is up to the end of November, and I will present it as a sample.

From now on, I plan to review it monthly and compare it with the actual market.

See HL analysis data below