How a genius investor thinks about phases TAKIZAWA Chicago Letter
Indian troops have withdrawn at the tense Sino-Indian border.
This time as well, Pakistan sides with China in Kashmir on the opposite front.
But the Trump administration won't act. Then India has no choice but to retreat.
At first glance, Bhutan appears pitiable. (Economically, it leans toward China.)
Japan should be prepared to accept the precedent of U.S. troops on the Senkaku Islands.
However, the market should welcome the easing of tensions along the India-China border.
Stocks today without a catalyst are expected to inch higher.
Now, the hurricane's damage is still undetermined.
In the meantime, Buffett will appear on CNBC this week.
In recent years, Buffett has been expanding his property-and-casualty insurance portfolio.
Why is he expanding the insurance business despite global warming?
Previously, his portfolio before World War II,became a giant of the German economy
Hugo Stinnesand that is the same as(in contrast to Elon Musk)
People who idolize Buffett and advocate long-term investing for individual investors.
Many individual investors love Buffett like that, but,
what he thinks is even more ruthless,
Hugo Stinneshow he controlled the German economy becomes clear when you look at it.
Buffett is predicting sudden inflation.
And regarding Buffett's property-and-casualty insurance portfolio,
Peter Thiel had an interesting analysis earlier.
Genius recognizes genius, as the saying goes,
Thiel suggests Buffett is conscious of four phases.
1) Peace: everyone buys insurance, but nothing happens,and only premiums come in.
2) Minor shocks: after 9/11, short-term insurance stocks were sold.
But afterward many joined insurance. As a result, insurance stocks rose.
3) Major shocks: in major shocks like the Great East Japan Earthquake,
insurance earnings take a hit. But in the end the government always rescues them.
4) Armageddon:the outbreak of a war in which 100 nuclear bombs explode on Earth.
Most would die, so there would be no insurance claims.
Peter Thiel–style way of organizing.
He imagined Buffett's thinking extending into the singularity.
In that context, Trump's tariff announcement.
The war phases described earlier occur in the following order.
Currency war > Trade war > Armed conflict
When the Fed's QT begins, the central bank-led "currency war" will end for now
Next is "Trade War".Tariffs will be imposed there.
That is today's Trump.And after going through a trade war in which wins and losses become clear
Finally, it leads to armed conflict.
At that time,
) Countries with rising nationalist sentiment (China, India,)
) Dictatorial-ruled countries (Russia, North Korea, Turkey, the Sunni kingdoms of the Middle East)
The moves of these countries will cause the preceding hegemonies to falter and be unable to restrain them.
(One factor behind World War I was Britain's decline)
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