Central Plains Shun Report No.110 July 5, 2021

1. Points

＜NYSE＞
1. Medium-to-long-term outlook (June 2021 marks the first 15.5-month cycle bottom. Entering the second 15.5-month cycle) No change
The 4-year cycle and 12-year cycle bottom in March. The first 15.5-month cycle is considered to have bottomed on June 18. The second 15.5-month cycle should rise at least for half of that cycle, i.e. until around February 2022.

2. Short-term outlook (third week of the new PC. The 15.5-month cycle is also considered to bottom at the same time. Buy on dips) No change
In the third week of the new PC. The June 18 low is the simultaneous bottom for the PC (15 weeks) and the 15.5-month cycle (15th month). The first phase of the 15.5-month cycle is always bullish. Buy on dips. However, although there is ample time, the pullback may be shallow, and due to time, cycle, seasonality, and the influence of year “1,” there may be a ceiling to the rise.

3. Cautions (old PC’s 18th week. Drops concurrently with the 15.5-month cycle and continues to fall from now until around the third week of July) No change
If you still believe the 15.5-month cycle and the PC have not bottomed, a sharp drop could resume at any time after this week. Sell on rallies, and expect continued decline at least until the week of July 12. Consider this a sub-scenario.

＜Nikkei Stock Average＞
1. Medium-to-long-term outlook (May 13, 2021 marks the 15.5-month cycle bottom. The second 15.5-month cycle is in an upward phase) No change
The 4-year cycle bottomed in March 2020. The first 15.5-month cycle also bottomed on May 13 (though price-wise it must clearly break above 29,500, and this condition has not yet been met). If bottomed, expect 3–4 months of upward movement. However, the 15.5-month cycle may still have a bottom target in mid-July, leaving the possibility that it has not bottomed yet.

2. Short-term outlook (the 8th week of the PC that started on May 13, and the 2nd week of the MC. Buy on dips) No change
The 8th week of the PC and the 2nd week of the MC. The MC is about 6 weeks ± 2 weeks, but the ideal reversal occurred at week 6. From the anniversary through early July, there should be only up to double-bottom level movement. Once the 2nd MC starts, there should be at least about 4 weeks of rise.

3. Cautions (the 18th week of the previous PC. Delay until the week of July 5 when the PC bottom is expected) No change
The sub-scenario is the 18th week of the PC and the 8th week of the second HPC. The top of the 15.5-month cycle is February 16. Influenced by overseas factors, a substantial decline is expected. The decline could reach as low as 25,300, continuing after the week of July 5. Sell on rallies.

Long-term subscriptions offer good value.

Toushin Nikpo Co., Ltd. / Weekly Nakamura Shun Report

https://www.toushinippou.co.jp/products/detail.php?product_id=184

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