“Kawai Michiko's Today's Strategy” 2017-08-28 07:36
Streamer: Kawai (Michiko Kawai)
GoGoJan Co., Ltd.
USD/JPY (as of 7:35: 109.26–109.28)
Dollar/Yen: The short-term trend remains unchanged, but the lower-bound support is holding. The euro may have finished its corrective decline.
Dollar/Yen ended the latest daily candle with a small bearish candle, and there is no sign that the upside trend is changing; however, on its own, there is not strong downside momentum, and it is holding the 109.00±0.10 yen support, so if it defends this level at the week's opening, a small rebound could occur; therefore caution is needed for sudden selling at this level.
Weekly chart also forms a candle close near a doji, and it closed the week without clearing the upper or lower resistance. There is no sign of a change to an uptrend, and downside risk remains elevated; however, as price action tightens, a one-sided move could occur, so be aware of this risk.
A weekly close below 109 yen, or a breach of 108 yen in price action, would signal further downside risk. Conversely, if price returns above 111.00, the short-term trend could change and the dollar's rebound potential would increase. However, given the medium-term trend remains weak, there is a risk of turning down again in the 112.50–113.50 resistance zone.
Today’s selling: sell on rallies around 109.50–109.60. The upside target is up to around 109.80. The stop loss is at 110.20 and exit there for now. Even if hit, strong resistance sits at 110.70–110.80, and unless 111.00–111.10 is cleared, the short-term trend will not change. Dollar buying remains sidelined.
Daily resistance: 109.70–109.80, 110.70–110.80, with the upside capped; lower side: 109.00±0.10, 108.50-60, 108.10-20.
EUR/USD ends the day with a bullish candle near the high; the rally from the downtrend that had pushed highs lower has broken above the August 2 high of 1.1910, and has also clearly cleared the 21-day moving average at 1.1793, signaling a change in the short-term trend. Although the gap between the short- and medium-term moving averages is somewhat wide, upside potential may not extend much, but given the recent daily candle change, downside space today should be limited. We plan to take a shallow pullback and ride the trend. Buy on dips to 1.1870-80. Downside space to around 1.1820-1.1830. Stop at 1.1780 and exit there. The short-term trend will not change unless it falls below 1.1700 again.
EUR/GBP: Note: The above is a continuation; translate as needed.“
EUR/JPY ends with a solid bullish daily candle, breaking above the August 2 high of 131.40, which had kept price down in the downtrend and forms a higher high. The possibility that the corrective decline has ended is signaling, and selling is being put on hold for now. However, price has not clearly pierced the strong resistance in the 130.50–130.70 zone, and unless it decisively breaks above this on a daily close or clears the 131.50–131.60 resistance, it may stay in a range, so be wary of chasing buys. Buy is to wait for a pullback to around 129.70–129.80. Stop at 128.80. If 128.50 breaks on the weekly close or price moves below 127.00, the short-term trend may turn lower.
Buy on a measured pullback and watch for a break above 131.50–131.60 to confirm the trend.“
GBP/USD shows a small rally, but price has not progressed above the downtrend’s resistance, and short-term trend change is not yet visible. The 31-week and 62-week moving averages converge near 1.2730, so if price cannot clear this level and reverses, downside risk persists. If price moves above 1.2770 with a shallow stop, a light test buy around 1.2820–1.2830 could be considered. Sell on a rally to around 1.2950–1.2960. Stop at 1.3010 to exit. This keeps the short-term trend neutral. Exit around 1.3010.
GBP/JPY continues to edge higher slightly. While it has not broken above the lower trend’s resistance, it has been bumped by the strong support in the 139 area, suggesting a potential bottom may have formed. Consider waiting or pulling back; exit at 141.60. If this level is hit, the bottom around 139 becomes more likely, but since moving averages in the 142 region converge in the mid-to-short term, there is still downside risk until a clear breakout occurs. Buy on a wait or a pullback to around 139.40 with a tight stop.
AUD/JPY shows a small rebound. Since there is not strong upside momentum and the daily and weekly charts are not stable, wait-and-see on buying or lightly pick up a pullback to around 86.10–86.20 and exit at 85.40. Sell on rallies around 87.00–87.10. Stop at 87.60 to exit. If hit, revert to a neutral stance.
【Dollar/Yen】
Resistance: 109.50–109.60, 109.70–109.80, 110.00–110.10, 110.30–110.40, 110.70–110.80, 111.00–111.10
Support: 109.00±0.10, 108.50–108.60, 108.10–108.20, 107.50–107.60, 107.20–107.30
“Kawai Michiko's Today's Strategy”
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