Support rate for the Suga Administration: 43%
June 28, 2021 (Monday) Clear to cloudy, evening rain also; final trading day with rights
NYSE
Dow: 34,433.84 USD +237.02 (+0.69%) (2 days of gains) (Dice: 6 wins, 6 losses)
Nasdaq: 14,360.39 points -9.32 (-0.06%) (down for 5 days) (Dice: 7 wins, 5 losses)
S&P Global 500: 4,280.70 +14.21 (+0.33%) (2 days of gains) (Dice: 7 wins, 5 losses) (Record high: 4,286.12)
CME E-mini Dow (USD denomination): 29,035 JPY (vs Osaka Exchange futures: -5) Osaka Exchange futures: 29,040 JPY (6/25)
CME E-mini Dow (Yen denomination): 29,010 JPY (vs Osaka Exchange futures: -30)
Osaka Exchange futures (as of 6/26 5:30): 28,990 JPY (intraday vs prior: -50)
Nikkei Average (Dollar-based): 262.19 +1.58 (6/25, two days of gains)
(Year-to-date high: 288.79 (2/16); year-to-date low: 261.83 (3/24); 2020 high 265.85 (12/29); 2020 low 151.99 (3/19))
US long-term yields (10-year Treasury): local time 17:30 1.5292% +0.0339 +2.27% (2-year yield 0.27% as of 6/25)
FX USD/JPY: 1 USD = 110.790 JPY; EUR/JPY: 1 EUR = 132.246 JPY
(Cboe Futures Exchange—yen-denominated futures: 6/22 14 weeks of net shorts (net shorts 53,862); week-over-week +7,012; second week of net shorts increasing)
European stock markets
FTSE All-Share: 7,136.07 +26.10 (+0.37%) (up two days)
DAX (Frankfurt): 15,607.97 +18.74 (+0.12%) (up two days)
CAC 40 (Paris): 6,622.87 -8.28 (-0.12%) (down for the first time in two days)
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VIX (Fear Index): 15.62 -0.35 -2.19%
VXV (3-month option volatility): 19.00 -0.26 -1.35% (VXV/VIX 0.82%)
Skew: 170.55 +9.51 (6/25) (two days up) >130 for 146 days in a row (since 11/18) (max 170.55 on 2021-06-25; 159.03 on 2018-08-13)
Fear & Greed Index: 44 (6/25)
0-25 Extreme Fear (risk-off); 76-100 Extreme Greed (risk-on)
26-50 Fear (neutral to risk-off); 51-75 Greed (neutral to risk-on)
(Below 10 indicates a bottom; 85 and above indicates near-complete optimism and a top)
SOX Index (Philadelphia Semiconductor): 3,241.48 -12.31 -0.38% (down for 5 days) (6/25)
Gold price: 1 troy ounce 1,781.7 USD +5.0
Nickel price: USD 8.3590 per pound +0.0718
Copper price: USD 4.2468 per pound -0.0027
WTI Crude Oil: 74.00 +0.70
Baltic Dry Index: 3,255.00 +80.00 (6/25) (three days up)
(Recent high 3,266.00 on 2021/05/05; recent low 393.00 on 2020/05/15)
Nikkei Average: 29,066.18 +190.95 (two trading days up)
SQ value: 29,046.40 (6/11) 29,282.41 (March major SQ)
Six days after SQ value determination: 【●〇〇〇●●】 3 wins, 3 losses
〇 = days Nikkei Average closed above SQ value; ● = days it closed below
Six days after the SQ, if there are many days below, the following month tends to be a downtrend.
NT Ratio: 14.81 -0.02 (6/25) (down for 3 days)
(2021 highs 15.66 on 2/25; lows 14.66 on 3/22; 2020 highs 15.21; 12/30 low 12.90; 2019 highs 13.87 on 10/18; 2018 lows 13.16 on 3/18)
Nikkei 225 Moving Average Deviation: +0.6% (previous business day +0.1%) Typically 5% deviation is a threshold
Nikkei 200-day moving average deviation: +6.6% (previous day +6.1%) (over 40% is dangerous; 45% limit)
Advance-Decline Ratio (25 days): Nikkei Average 99.56 +3.82 (6/25) Recent high 137.10 (2021/03/29) Low 40.12 (2020/03/16)
Mothers Index: 89.48 -1.62 (6/25) Recent high 114.70 (2021/02/05) Low 65.16 (2021/05/13)
(Generally 120%+ is overheated; 70% or below is a bottom zone; 60% or below is a buying opportunity)
Psychological (12 days): 50.0% (+8.3) 6 wins 6 losses (6/25) (Generally 9+ wins is overheated; 3 or fewer is bottom zone)
Matsui Securities Credit Profit/Loss Ratio (速報):
Short Sellers: -14.262% (previous day -14.076%) (2021/02/17 -22.537%) (2020/03/16 +6.443%; 2020/06/08 -18.753%)
Buyers: -6.465% (previous day -7.128%) (2021/02/10 -2.543%) (2018/01/23 +1.144%; 2020/03/13 -31.239%)
Mothers Stocks Net Stock Credit Profit/Loss Ratio (Matsui Securities速報)
Short Sellers: +5.258% (previous day +3.377%) (2021/04/21 +6.830%; 2020/01/14 -18.7694%)(2020/03/13 +14.653%; 2020/06/12 -30.992%)
Buyers: -16.196% (previous day -16.850%) (2021/01/25 -8.43; 2020/05/17 -25.167%) (2018/01/24 +0.46%; 2020/03/19 -48.775%)
Credit rating ratio (as of 6/18): negative 8.76% -0.86 (worsened for the 5th week)
(Generally, negative 15% or below is a bottom, negative 3% or more is a ceiling)
Arbitrage buying balance: 780.8 billion yen; previous week +55.7 billion yen (2 weeks of increase); TSE First Section market cap ratio 0.108% (警戒ライン 0.5%)
Sell balance: 215.8 billion yen; previous week -208.2 billion yen (6 weeks of decline); market cap as of 6/23: 7,254.806 trillion yen
(If arbitrage buys reach the 5000 billion yen level, the Nikkei may bottom out)
Dominant trading stocks: 18.6%
Short selling ratio: 37.3% (6/25); previous day 39.9%; below 40% for 3 consecutive trading days (6/23–)
(Historically: 52.1% on 2020/3/6; 51.7% on 2020/3/12; etc.)
Short selling ratio with no regulatory cap: 7.2% (6/25) (2021/3/12 16.2; 2019/3/8 14.6) (above 8% is considered a turning point)
Nikkei HV: 17.9
Nikkei VI: 17.86 -0.53
(Below 20 is a buy zone; above 40 is a sell zone)
CDS index: Ground price 45.21 -0.03
REIT Index: 2146.77 +5.52 (two days up) (6/25)
Nikkei Average component stocks PER: 14.08x; Earnings per share 2,064.36 yen (6/24 2,068.43) (high 2,068.82 on 2021/05/31)
(2021/01/04 1,084.51; 2020/01/06 1,639.92; 2019/01/04 1,763.93; 2018/01/04 1,519.48; 2017/01/04 1,180.37)
Nikkei Average component stocks PBR: 1.25x (6/25)
Simple average (all Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section stocks): 2,431.66 JPY +14.66 (2020 year-end 2,341.19; 2019 year-end 2,327.02; 2018 year-end 2,077.20; 2017 year-end 2,946.13)
TSE investment主体 weekly buying/selling trends; past 5 weeks (3rd week of June) ○ net buying, ● net selling
Foreign: ●○○●○ (two weeks since net buying)
Individuals: ●●○○○ (three weeks of net buying)
Trust banks: ○●●○● (two weeks since net selling) (6/24 announcement) (including JASDAQ)
Mothers investment主体 weekly trends past 5 weeks (3rd week of June) ○ net buying ● net selling
Foreign: ○○●○● (two weeks net selling)
Individuals: ●●○●○ (two weeks net buying) (6/24 announcement)
JASDAQ investment主体 weekly trends past 5 weeks (3rd week of June) ○ net buying ● net selling
Foreign: ●●●●○ (seven weeks net buying)
Individuals: ○○○○○ (eleven weeks net buying) (6/24 announcement)
TSE investment主体 monthly trends past five months (through May) ○ net buying ● net selling
Foreign: ○○○○● (eight months net selling)
Individuals: ○●●○● (two months net selling) (3/6 announcement)
The leading role in decarbonization: the world competes (Japan, US, Europe, China moving 850 trillion yen) (Nikkei newspaper New Year’s front-page headline, 2021)
- The Communist Party of China will celebrate its 100th anniversary in July.
After adopting reform and opening up, economic growth supported single-party rule, but
Growing urban-rural disparities, aging population, and intensifying tensions with the US deepen internal and external issues.
- China at a crossroads: The Communist Party’s 100 years (Part 1)
President Xi Jinping instructed at a party meeting in October 2020 to “take the lead in the international race in quantum technology,” pledging ample funding.
China’s investment in quantum computing from 2009 to 2018 reached USD 63 million (about 7 billion yen), chasing the US (USD 106 million).
China will push state-led R&D leveraging enormous funds.
In March, it laid out seven key tech fields for the next five years, including AI,
and signaled a policy to grow total R&D spending, public and private together, by an average of 7% per year.
If it fails to resolve citizens’ grievances through the economy, it may be forced to adopt a hardline external stance, similar to pressure on Hong Kong and Taiwan.
The future of the Communist Party’s governance at 100 will be a major global fork that could influence the world.
- Nikkei reports that about 1,000 listed companies with sales under 100 billion yen were surveyed as part of the NEXT 1000;
- The ranking lists companies with the largest increase in operating income for fiscal year 2020.
Amid COVID-19 restrictions, companies in mobile gaming and IT services that captured non-contact demand ranking higher.
To select consistently growing companies, those with both fiscal year 2019 and 2020 operating profits in positive territory were considered.
1st AI Inside <4488> [Close 14,090 yen] Provides a service that reads printed documents and converts them to text data.
2nd Coly <4175> [Close 4,410 yen] Mobile game distribution targeting women.
- Nikkei and TV Tokyo <9413> [Close 2,150 yen] Conducting a public opinion poll on 25–27.
Support for Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga stood at 43%, up 3 points from the May survey.
At the Tokyo Olympics, 22% think it is appropriate to allow up to 10,000 spectators.
33% say it should be held without spectators. 37% think it should be postponed or canceled.
Combining “appropriate,” “no spectators,” and “as usual (4%)” yields 59%, higher than postponement/cancellation.
Regarding government COVID-19 measures, 57% say they do not evaluate them, down 7 points since May.
“Evaluate” stands at 39%, up 8 points.
People who do not support the cabinet are 50%, flat from May; those who do not support it outnumber those who support it for two consecutive months.
Party support: Liberal Democratic Party remains top at 43% (May was 42%).
Second place: Constitutional Democratic Party at 8%; independents roughly flat at 31%.
- Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics Organizing Committee on the 27th,
If a positive case is confirmed among the team on arrival at the airport, an accompanying person with close contact will be quarantined even before determination.
The committee will strengthen border measures and consider a system to present close contacts at airports;
for overseas athletes arriving from countries/regions with Delta variant outbreaks, test every day for seven days before departure.
(Nikkei 1st page)
- In a Nikkei survey, when asked about willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19,
the proportion of those in the “strongly willing” group (including those who have already been vaccinated) was over 60%.
31% want to wait to judge side effects; 6% do not want vaccination.
By age: 85% of those 60+ are strongly willing; 51% of 40–50s; 38% of 18–29.
- In a Nikkei survey, who would be the most suitable Prime Minister for the next administration.
1st: Taro Kono unchanged (23%); 2nd: Shinjiro Koizumi (13% +2); 3rd: Shinjiro Ishiba (13% -1)
4th: Shinzo Abe (9%); 5th: Yoshihide Suga (6%); 6th: Katsuya Okada (6%)
- The movement to produce city gas from fossil fuels using wind or solar, mixing hydrogen generated by renewable energy with CO2, is spreading.
Called “Power to Gas,” a cleaner way to produce gas.
A challenge to widespread adoption is cost.
- The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will reorganize its legal interpretations so it can quickly detect the command-and-control servers that cyberattack CCTV and other devices.
As more IoT devices connect to the internet, security-lax devices become higher-value targets.
Because network operators can identify command centers from device communication data, they can more easily block attack commands.
- Global COVID-19 cases (deaths) as of 4:00 PM 6/27, Johns Hopkins University tally: 180,790,000 worldwide (7,790 deaths)
US 33,621,237 (369) India 30,233,183 (1,258) Brazil 18,383,894 (1,593) France 5,830,394 (12) Turkey 5,404,144 (51) Russia 5,367,317 (610)
UK 4,734,011 (23) Argentina 4,393,142 (338) Italy 4,257,289 (40) Colombia 4,126,340 (693) Spain 3,782,463 (0) Germany 3,734,153 (8)
- Toshiba <6502> Close 4,815 yen; Audit Committee to commence a re-investigation of the July 2020 annual general meeting.
An external lawyer flagged that the alumni association meeting was not run fairly,
leading to an unusual situation where shareholders who raised concerns rejected the personnel proposals at the May 25 annual meeting.
- Gurunavi <2440> Close 538 yen; to start a meal delivery service from July.
Based on more than 50,000 stores nationwide. Rakuten Group <4755> Close 1,251 yen> strengthening collaboration to lock in customers.
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