6.10 ECB policy rate & US CPI are today’s focal points
In the currency market, volatility has been narrowing ahead of the event risks, so there is a possibility of renewed movement starting today.
ECB policy rates are also scheduled, but the prevailing view is to hold steady for now, and that seems likely to end smoothly as expected.
The FOMC is similar, with the basic path being to continue as before.
Unless the CPI results significantly exceed expectations, the tapering expectation should retreat further, and dollar selling is expected to resume.
At the London fix, dollar selling seems to have moderated to some extent, but it hasn’t reached the same level of relief as in May, perhaps due to a bit of tapering familiarity.
The Bank of Canada has also announced a hold on policy rates.
Yesterday, ahead of the announcement, CAD was somewhat favored to rise, but after the central bank’s statement it pulled back slightly.
Although it remained a hold, there is no expectation of a significant change in CAD movement.
Ultimately, it will depend on the data today, so I plan to watch the CPI live.
I’m scheduled to stream about 30 minutes from 21:15.