A column currently published on Toyo Keizai ONLINE: A brilliant performance, yet a dilemma where it’s not usable

Good morning, this is Matsushita.

Last week in the financial markets, due to the heightened tensions between the U.S. and North Korea,

the risk-off selling continued,

but it is trying to regain a bit of calm.

domestically, it is the Obon holiday period,

so liquidity is low, making short-term trading

not suitable for this time of day.

Set checking prices to a fixed time,

and take a slow, restful break.

Right now, we are continuing to test a new logic for stock investing,

which can be seen as seasonality,

to determine when during the year it is most favorable to buy stocks,

and what anomalies indicate this.

Two months have passed since we started this test, and

there are terrifying anomalies in stock price movements.

In other words, the times that are favorable for buying and

the times that are not, are clearly distinguishable.

Coincidentally, as I am writing this newsletter,

it seems to be fate, but historically the months of July and August

often see stock market crashes.

In short, summer is not a good time for buying.

The verification is still ongoing,

and we have not obtained something definite,

so I will leave it at this for today,

but I hope there will be a day when I can also introduce this logic

in the future.

If I were to share the ups and downs of actual testing,

this logic initially yielded surprisingly

wonderful results.

With such a simple logic,

if the performance is this good,

I thought stock investing is incredibly easy.

However, when I scrutinized the details further,

I realized that those wonderful numbers were entirely unusable

for practical purposes.

We are stopped here now.

Even though the testing results are astonishingly good,

they are actually unusable in practice.

How to transform these wonderful numbers

into trades or rules that are worth implementing.

This now rests on my own skills.

However, weeks have passed since this issue was revealed, and

I still have not come up with a good idea. (cries)

This weekend on the 20th (Sunday) there will be a Trade Research Meeting,

where I hope to get the students’

opinions from a different perspective.

If I can refine this logic to something valuable for practical use,

I will introduce it in the future.

It is astonishingly simple,

and surprisingly high in performance. (laugh)