[Market Commentary] The world’s largest crypto asset conference, Consensus 2021, is scheduled to close
☆ The greatest concern in the financial markets is inflation, with caution toward the Fed's tapering
☆ The greatest concerns in crypto are regulation in China, then regulation in the United States, consensus 2021
On Wednesday, May 26, European markets were largely unmoved, with US stocks also inching higher. Germany's DAX remained seasonally high but closed down 0.09% from the previous day. The Russell 2000, a measure of US small-cap stocks, rose 1.97% from the previous day. Day-to-day movements are not dramatic, but the market has been gradually pushing higher. From a daily perspective, Nasdaq-100 appears to be regaining strength. The VIX, the so-called fear index, is at 17.36, stabilizing below the psychological threshold of 20. Today in the early morning Japan time, US semiconductor giant Nvidia released its quarterly results. First quarter sales and profits hit record highs, but after-hours trading fell 0.9%.
With stock market activity being muted, currencies began to move relatively. The US Dollar Index rose about 0.4%, USD/JPY climbed into the 109 handle, and EUR/USD declined. The EUR/JPY stayed in an uptrend despite a small dip, while the Canadian dollar lost momentum. The Chinese yuan hit its highest level against the dollar in three years. In the Oceania region, the NZ Reserve Bank’s hints at a rate hike supported the NZ dollar rising about 1%, while the AUD was largely unchanged.
US 10-year yields drifted quietly around 1.57%. Gold held above $1,900 but, like other precious metals, pulled back to the $1,890s. NY crude oil remains focused on the March 8 high of $67.98 as the near-term target, though resistance in the $67–68 range is substantial. Natural gas has shown a rebound from a dip.
The crypto asset market is generally firm, with Bitcoin hovering around the $40k level. Bitcoin's dominance recovered to the high-40s after the crash but has since gradually declined to the 42% range. While funds initially flowed into Bitcoin as a relatively stable asset among cryptos, as prices recovered, money has been flowing back into altcoins. Scott Minerd, CIO of US investment firm Guggenheim, told CNBC that while he expects further Bitcoin selling in the near term, he remains bullish longer term; this view is common among market participants. It had been noted that a 50% to 75% drop from the high could occur, which, from price levels, would bebetween 32,000 and 16,000 dollarsA column also suggests preparing for a drop to 15,000 dollars.
The world's largest crypto asset conference Consensus 2021 is being held today through Thursday the 27th. There has long been a rumor that markets become bullish during conferences, but caution is advised about a potential abrupt drop after the event. The total market capitalization of crypto assets stands around $1.5–1.7 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for about half. Remember that the entire crypto market is roughly in line with the silver market or Google, while Bitcoin is about on par with Tencent (a major Chinese tech firm) and Berkshire Hathaway led by Warren Buffett.
[Source] Infinite Market Cap 6–12
This evening at 21:30, the US will release the first-quarter GDP revision.
【Stocks with trading appeal】
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, other altcoins
DAX
EUR/JPY
【Notes on market commentary】
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① Whether the material is transient
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Divergence: A top-down overview of financial markets and crypto market conditions
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