[Market Commentary] The number of cumulative Bitcoin addresses is rapidly increasing
☆ The biggest concern in financial markets is inflation and the Fed's tapering, but the easing stance is increasing
☆ The biggest concern in crypto is regulation in China; the government is wary of outflows of funds abroad
On Tuesday, May 25, European and American stock markets showed a lackluster performance. US stocks were not affected, but Case-Shiller national home price index rose 13.2% year over year through March, the highest since December 2005. With low rates supporting, prices for new and existing homes in the US continued to rise as robust demand outpaced supply.
The German DAX edged higher to an all-time high, absorbing two days of price movements due to Monday being a holiday. Ifo's business climate survey was favorable, but Germany's Q1 GDP revision showed a 1.8% drop due to reduced household spending. The US 10-year yield began to falter, falling to 1.56%. Gold rose to the $1,900 level in response to falling yields. The currency market shows small movements, with euro-yen gradually rising. The Canadian dollar remained largely unchanged but stayed at high levels. The Chinese yuan hit a three-year high against the dollar, and the FTSE China A50 index rose 4.16%.
[Source] Trading View: Comparison chart of Euro-Yen and EURUSD
With gold, silver and platinum metals remained solid. Conversely, commodities fell, with corn dropping about 6% drawing attention. Volume was commensurate with the price range.
[Source] Trading View: Corn daily chart and volume
NY oil hardly moved. It hovered around $66, with the March 8 high of $67.98 likely to be the near-term target. Around $66 has been a level in late Oct 2018, early March, and this month, suggesting a range of $67–68 as a resistance band. Goldman Sachs analysts foresee oil prices at $80 by summer
Crypto asset market volatility remains intense but directions are hard to discern. While there is some support from buy-the-dip, prices are not advancing. It is prudent to stay wary of further declines. As Bitcoin halved from its all-time high of $64,800 to a low of $30,000, Glassnode data on cumulative Bitcoin addresses reached 545,115, a new all-time high. The rise in cumulative addresses supports Bitcoin price. Also, the world’s largest crypto asset conference Consensus 2021 is ongoing this week, until the 27th (Thu).
[Source] Glassnode: Bitcoin cumulative addresses
【Stocks with trading potential】
Bitcoin, Ethereum
Gold
Euro-Yen
Corn
【Notes on Market Analysis】
Please read while considering the following points.
① Whether the material is transitory
② Whether the price impact is sustainable
Divergence: A market overview of financial markets with a crypto market perspective
- Market commentary for traders
- Positioning of crypto assets from financial markets
※ Traders can trade anything; you may focus on hot and meaningful assets, or ignore if there is no significance in crypto assets
Mindset as a Trader
・Reading explanations after events occur is fine; it does not affect forecast skills or trading results.
・The current market movements cannot be fully explained.
・Even if the direction is unclear, profits can be made.
・In markets where analysts or strategists say “it will rise,” one can profit from pullbacks or consolidation phases.
Traders can win without knowing market fundamentals. The stance of reports written by people who do or do not have market analysis that directly translates to trading may differ slightly. Still, please understand that even if I write it, it will superficially resemble general market commentary.
