[Market Commentary] Ceasefire in the Middle East provides relief, obligation to transfer crypto to $10,000
Among the three major U.S. indices, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.94% from the previous day, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also gained 2.64%. Google and Apple shares rose by more than 2%, and a relatively optimistic mood spread despite the collapse in crypto assets. European stocks were also firm, with the DAX again showing momentum toward all-time highs. The VIX, which measures volatility based on S&P 500 options, fell to 20.67 but stalled just short of the psychologically important 20 level. The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after 11 days of fighting also provided relief.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly to 1.63%, but gold attracted buyers and hit a four-month high. The dollar index was soft, making USD/JPY negative and EUR/USD tend to rise. The Canadian dollar appears to be riding an ongoing uptrend. NY crude oil declined, currently in the 61-dollar range, and in the morning of May 21 (Friday) Japan time, prices for grains and the overall market were falling.
A day after the crypto asset crash, market calm is beginning to return. Reports that U.S. authorities plan to require reporting when crypto transfers exceed $10,000 caused a temporary plunge, but bitcoin recovered to the $41,000 range and ether recovered to the $2,800 range. A JP Morgan strategist commented on bitcoin that“If it cannot immediately recover to the $60,000 range, it will trim the trend.”which leaves a sense of urgency in the time frame. Compared with the onset of bitcoin stagnation in 2018, the price rose and fell without ever reaching a new high. While some bulls insist that fundamentals have not changed, caution remains warranted.
【Stocks with trading appeal】
Nasdaq 100
GBP/JPY
Gold
【Notes on Market Commentary】
Please read with the following points in mind.
① Whether it is a transient phenomenon
② Whether it is something that will continue
Mindset as a trader
・“Explanations after events” are fine to read, but they do not affect forecasting ability or trading performance.
・The current market movements cannot be explained in a single snapshot.
・Even if the direction is unclear, it is possible to profit.
・In markets where analysts and strategists say “it will go up,” you can profit from pullbacks or consolidation phases.
Traders who do not know market mechanics can still win, but the stance in reports written by people like me—who are not just providing market commentary or analysis but who have a broader perspective—will differ somewhat. Please accept that, even if I write it, the surface level will be “no different from general market conditions.”
