[Market Commentary] Bitcoin: The time until recovery is the most important

Due to renewed inflation concerns, U.S. stocks drifted lower toward the close on May 18 (Tuesday). Major U.S. stock indices fell by less than 1%, but this weakness spilled over to the Japanese stock market, which started weak and briefly fell below 28,000 yen. The fear gauge, known as the VIX index, closed trading at 21.34, above the psychological threshold of 20. The dollar index retreated, and EURUSD rebounded to the 1.22 dollar range. The USD/JPY traded with small moves around the 109 level. The Canadian dollar continued its daily downtrend, albeit with limited movement. GBP/JPY is slowly making new recent highs. NY crude oil fell, registering around a 2.5% decline from the previous day. The March 8 high of $67.98 now seems distant.

Crypto assets remained weak, with Bitcoin around the low $40,000s and Ethereum under $3,200. There was a sharp drop during the morning in Japan time. On the 20th last month, JPMorgan strategists commented thatif Bitcoin cannot recover to the $60,000s quickly, it would undermine the uptrend— in other words, the ceiling would be confirmed — and that marked a warning for a winter this year, which began in 2018.We cannot ignore the risk of a winter periodThe length of the time until recovery is the most important factor, and I agree with that. The moment Bitcoin declines, a contrarian buy-to-sell rally seems to be losing effectiveness.This suggests that contrarian trading is gradually becoming less effective.

Bitcoin-Gold charts have returned to a downtrend and the trend has not changed, because Bitcoin is falling. It is tradable in minimum lot sizes of 0.5 units, and in 1-lot increments, Bitcoin equates to 23 units of gold. Conversely, a move from 22 to 23 translates to one unit of gold, i.e., about $1,870, which is highlystimulatingfor Bitcoin-Gold to be traded atmajor overseas brokersExness. The gold itself remains steady, and inflows into gold-related ETFs continue, keeping the price around the $1,860 level.

【Source】 MT5 BTCXAU (Bitcoin-Gold) daily chart

Over the past week, grain prices have fallen notably. In particular,corn and wheat show a downside adjustment after reaching recent highs on the daily chart.Although inflation concerns have resurfaced, there is no visible inflation impact on grain markets.

【Source】TradingView corn daily chart

In the early hours of Thursday Japan time, the minutes of the April Federal Reserve meeting will be released.

【Stocks with Trading Merit】
Bitcoin-Gold
GBP/JPY
Crude Oil

【Notes on Market Commentary】
Please read with the following points in mind.
① Whether it is transient
② Whether it is ongoing

Trader mindset
・"Commentary after events" is just for reading; it does not affect forecasting ability or trading results.
・The current market movements cannot be fully explained.
・Even if the direction is unclear, profits can still be made.
・In markets where analysts or strategists say "rise," it is possible to profit from pullbacks or corrections.

Traders can win even without knowing market mechanics. The stance of reports written by people like me, who are not merely doing market analysis but also have trading implications, may differ slightly from those who merely provide general market explanations. Still, please regard it as inevitable that my writing will appear broadly similar to general market sentiment.