[Market Commentary] Bitcoin and Gold fall as inflation concerns swirl
Gold continued to rise, hitting a three-month high and surpassing $1,870. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 1.64%. Inflation concerns remain simmering. Major U.S. indices were down from the previous day, but moves were modest. The Russell 2000, composed of U.S. small-cap stocks, was up 0.11% from the previous day. The VIX fear gauge rose to 19.72, but remains below the psychological 20 level. There were no significant moves in currencies; the Canadian dollar remained steady, and the pound/yen rose slightly, maintaining an upward trend and updating recent highs.
WTI crude oil has been inching higher, aiming for the March 8 high of $67.98. The close is the strongest since late October 2018. Copper and precious metals stayed firm. In the Japanese market, attention focused on May 17 (Monday) when the Mothers Index fell 3.85%, but today, like other indices such as the Nikkei, it moved firmly higher and settled.
Crypto assets continued to fall, with Bitcoin retracing after a three-month rally and hovering near $45,000, while Ethereum rebounded to around $3,400. In contrast, Ripple moved in an unclear direction. Bitcoin’s dominance rate briefly entered the 30% range but is roughly unchanged at 41% from the previous day. While it makes sense to view the dominance rate when Bitcoin is treated as a base currency, some argue that with ecosystems like Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain gaining prominence, it may be less meaningful to view Bitcoin alone as the dominant metric. The overall crypto market cap fell below $2 trillion, and Bitcoin’s market cap has also declined below $1 trillion.
According to a Bloomberg article, the relative ratio of Bitcoin to gold has fallen since early February. However, as the image shows, a bullish candle is seen today. Given Bitcoin’s volatile movements, this trend warrants close watch. Incidentally, this Bitcoin/Gold pairing can be traded onExness, a major overseas brokerwhich I also recommend. If you want to know how to open an account, please contact the broker directly. This Bitcoin/Gold pair is especially hot amid current inflation concerns, and with swap points (funding rate) at zero, it seems easy to trade.
【Source】 MT5 BTCXAU Bitcoin-Gold daily chart
According to the Cabinet Office, Japan’s Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at an annualized rate of 5.1%. This was attributed to reduced corporate investment, sluggish consumer spending, and decreased government spending, with experts noting the surprise in the data.
【Trading-worthy stocks】
Bitcoin-Gold
Gold
Pound-Yen
Canadian dollar
Crude oil
【Notes on Market Commentary】
Please read with the following points in mind.
① Whether it is transitory
② Whether it will continue
Trader’s mindset
・“Commentary after things happen” is okay to read, but it does not impact forecasting ability or trading results.
・The current market moves cannot be fully explained.
・Even if the direction is unclear, it is possible to profit.
・With markets where analysts or strategists say “rising,” you can profit from pullbacks and consolidation phases.
Traders can win even without understanding market mechanics. Reports written by people who share my view versus those who don’t will have slightly different stances. Still, please accept that, even if I write, it will superficially resemble general market commentary.
