Our trading methods and way of thinking

This time, since we received a question, I would like to talk about the trading method at MoHi-Oh-Ya-Bin, or rather, what kind of trading we do.

First, the特徴 is that we do not use technical indicators or oscillator indicators.
I have written about these before on the blog, but I do not use them. (Of course I do not deny them, though)
For me, they are unnecessary and, in fact, tend to confuse my trading, so I do not use them.

Well, I analyze with the naked chart, i.e., only candlesticks displayed.
I hardly use lines. I don’t pay much attention to Fibonacci either.

So, what do you think I analyze? you might wonder, but

I think the market can only go up or down. And I think you never know what will happen next.
Currently, due to the spread of COVID-19, the market has been formed, but we don’t know what will happen tomorrow due to disasters, wars, and other things,
the market involves many diverse and complex factors, so no one can know the future even one minute ahead. It’s only a forecast.
Understanding this, when facing the market, the most important thing is probability.

If the future is unknown, I think we must forecast.
To forecast, accurate situational awareness is required.
From the analyses, I confirm that the resulting probability-strong forecast is real, and I build a strategy for how far to trade and how much to increase, and I trade accordingly.

What I keep in mind is,
・Mass psychology of investors
・Enter in the direction of the trend, at the early stage of the trend
・Enter at points where take-profit is visible

In very simple terms, if you can correctly recognize the point where prices stop rising or stopping falling, entering in the direction of the trend becomes easy; more important than that is the strategy itself.
To build that strategy, correct situational awareness is required, and from there you take entry chances toward the higher-probability side.
A trader who can do this can win in FX. I can say this with confidence.

As for the theory behind my trading, it is not Dow Theory. It is not Elliott Wave Theory. It is not the Saka-ta-50 method, nor is it price-action analysis in the Western sense.
Nevertheless, I do use the good points of those theories, because each has its weaknesses.

Hide-kun

For someone studying FX now, is there something you should study?After all, one should study price movement. At minimum, I believe you must be able to quickly and accurately recognize a clear top or bottom.
Also, study timeframes and trends, i.e., wave theory.

I think you must study these before indicators or lines, otherwise you won’t win for long.

I clearly understand the tops and bottoms. I can explain this in universal terms to anyone.
I think I am among a small number of people in the world who understand this.
Also, I pride myself on mastering a wave theory that is not Elliott or Dow, and that complements their weaknesses.
I have never seen these ideas written the same in various books. Similar ideas sometimes appear, but they are always incomplete in my view.
I have not yet solved all of my weaknesses.

By the way, when I say wave theory, it is not only about trends. It is a multi-timeframe concept where conflicting waves or shifts in crowd speculative psychology over time form wave predictions as a theory.

Explaining all of this would take enormous time, so it is not easy to cover everything here, though.

In summary
・Since the near-future is unpredictable for everyone, forecasting in advance is impossible. The future can only be understood through outcomes.
・If the current situational awareness is correct, then accurate, high-probability forecasts are possible.

To put it very simply
・Learn the method to clearly determine a true top or bottom
・Properly understand the wave called the trend (price movement).
These are the two points.