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Tradesignal Japan Representative: Bitcoin Seminar by Fox of the Sky
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Introducing the latest issue of the Fox of the Sky Bitcoin Newsletter
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Weekly Report Kettle #FX #Bitcoin #CFD #Stocks #Gold #Crude Oil 2017-07-31 delivery date: 2017/07/31 09:19
1 Technical Analysis & Algorithmic Analysis Main Scenario☆ How to read and use is below
Instrument Directional Scenario Box Forecast Average Range Short-Term Swing Trade Reference Medium- to Long-Term Position Trade Reference / Attention Level
Overall Market Short- to Mid-Term Vacation Trend Confirmation Long-Term Second-Half Trend Confirmation / C
TLT (U.S. Treasuries) ↓ Bullish 125~120; 1 day 91 Short-Term Decline Mid- to Long-Term Box / B
Dow → Bullish 2230~20814 1 day 113 Short- to Mid-Term Rise / A
Nikkei → Bullish 20318~19109 1 day 134 Short- to Mid-Term Box Long-Term Rise / B
DAX→ Bearish 12260~11500 1 day 132 Short-Term Decline Mid- to Long-Term Rise / B
EURUSD ↑ Bullish 1.2300~1.1459 1 day 86 Short- to Mid-Term Rise (Long-Term Decline; 1.362 expired) / A
EURGBP ↑ Bullish 0.9180~0.8670 1 day 70 Short- to Mid- to Long-Term Box (Long-Term Rise expired 0.8077 expired) / B
GBPUSD ↑ Bullish 1.349~1.294 1 day 88 Short-Term / Mid-Term Rise (Long-Term Decline expired 1.391) / A
AUDUSD ↑ Bullish 0.8075~0.767 1 day 80 Short- to Mid-Term Rise / A
NZDUSD ↑ Bullish 0.770~0.7128 1 day 69 Short- to Mid- to Long-Term Rise / A
USDCCHF↑ Bullish 0.990~0.9500 1 day 79 Short-Term Rebound Mid- to Long-Term Box/ A Long-Term Box 0.95 expired
USDJPY ↓ Bearish 112.43~108 1 day 86 Short-Term Decline Mid-Term Box Long-Term Rise / D
EURJPY → Bullish 137~124 1 day 97 Short-Term Box Mid- to Long-Term Rise / C
GBPJPY → Bullish 151~142 1 day 117 Short-Term Box Mid-Term Neutral Long-Term Rise / B
AUDJPY → Bullish 92.97~86.70 1 day 76 Short-Term Box Mid-Term Rise Long-Term Box / B
NZDJPY → Bullish 84~79.57 1 day 66 Short-Term Box Mid-Term Rise Long-Term Box / B
BTCUSD → Neutral 3300~1400 1 day 200 Short- to Mid-Term Rise Long-Term Box / E
BTCJPY → Neutral 390000~150000 1 day 19000 Short- to Mid-Term Rise Long-Term Box / E
GOLD ↑ Bullish 1290~1250 1 day 12 Short- to Mid- to Long-Term Rise / A
WTI → ↑ Bullish 52~46 Daily 120 Short-Term Rise Mid-Term Box Up Long-Term Box 60 expired / A
2 Fundamentals
7/31 Monday 18:00 UK CPI
8/1 Tuesday 13:30 RBA 18:00 EU GDP 23:00 USA
8/1 Wednesday 16:00 ECB Monthly Report
8/3 Thursday 20:00 BoE
8/4 Friday 10:30 RBA 21:30 USA Non-Farm Payroll Canada Employment
3 Fusion Analysis: The Golden Ratio of Fundamentals & Technicals 7 to 3
This week is Theme Week, Kettle. There is a sense of alert about something suddenly being added to the kettle and exploding. The Dollar Index, Gold, and Crude Oil are testing technical points, and the market may move in an instant. Because it is vacation, I don’t want to force things, but I view this as a week to opportunistically trial portfolio changes
Last week, due to North Korea’s missiles, the market dipped, but excluding Japan and Asia, other markets rebounded. When this happens, think of it as a chance. Also, end of month, please be mindful of positioning rhythm
The overall market trend shows signs of recovery; the market direction is becoming clear. I want to treat this trend with great care.
This week’s theme is the golden ratio of Fundamentals & Technicals—7 to 3; we will view the market with fundamentals in the lead.
In Tokyo time, EU time, and NY time, pay attention to the moves in the dollar index and crude oil. Observe where prices settle in each market session.
4 Markets to Watch
1st: Forex market — dollar weakness, yen strength, Swiss franc strength
2nd: Bonds — TLT; changes in long-term Treasuries and long-term yields; signs of risk-off
3rd: Commodities market — steady recovery
4th: Bitcoin market — wait-and-see, preparing for tomorrow
5th: Stock market — confirming a recovery trend
5 Notable Stocks — Brief comments in order of attention
Dollar Index at 93.25; Technical point 93–92. A break could change the market outlook; dollar weakness becomes more pronounced.
Swiss movements are changing, and risk-on sentiment is rising. Attention to commodity currencies and dollar crosses increases.
USDJPY: yen-strength pressure rising; moves to test 105 from 110; caution. If it breaks below, yen strength accelerates. Cross-yen levels also require attention.
→ Forex Market: From dollar weakness, big shifts in investment opportunities await. Confirm the direction of yen strength, euro strength, and commodity-currency strength.
※ Commodity currencies: aim to hold and nurture the trend from August to October
TLT 123.89: rebound adjustment zone; projected move to 125–122
→ This serves as a market guidepost; the bond market is quiet
GOLD 1269: rise accelerates
OIL 49.93: the 50 line is approaching
→ Commodities market: after a period of consolidation, improvement; oil near the 50 line, market becomes more stable
Gold is also considered a safe-haven hedge
Bitcoin in USD 2732: check for upside
Bitcoin in JPY 305,339: check for upside
→ Bitcoin market: as issues settle, upside remains heavy; avoid branching speculation; stay cautious ahead of August 1; interest in other markets increasing
Dow 21830: impression of aiming for a box-up
Nikkei 19944: box-adjustment in progress
DAX 12161: after forming the second wave of decline, poised for a rebound
→ Stock market: though last week cooled somewhat, the overall recovery trend continues; ongoing market confirmation
☆ How to Read and Use
Instrument Directional Scenario Box Forecast Short-Term Swing Trade Reference Medium- to Long-Term Position Trade Reference / Attention Level
Example: Dow → Bullish 21187~20490; Short- to Mid-Term Box-Up; Long-Term Up / A
Directional Scenario shows the possible price path
Box Forecast: Day-based mathematical analysis; 2–3 weeks outlook; highs and lows
Note: Range expressions are unified as Box
Average Daily Range: Use as a reference for day-trading strategies
Example: 100 is the average range; if price has moved 50 from the open, consider it still movable; if it has moved 100, decide not to move further today. Also, with stop ratios, a 150-stop loss line, take-profit if it has moved 100; consider this as a reference.
Short-Term Swing Trading Reference: Price development image
Short-Term: Daily chart basis analysis; 2–3 weeks outlook
Mid- to Long-Term: Position trading reference; price development image
Mid-Term: Weekly chart basis analysis; a few months to half a year
Long-Term: Monthly chart basis analysis; more than one year
Attention Level: Measures market focus and confidence in the market. If A or B, trading environment is favorable, allowing new trades and continuing positions. If E or D, consider pausing trading or closing positions.
Attention Level A–E: A Very Good, B Good, C Watch/Neutral, D Somewhat Risky, E Dangerous
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The information published here is provided for reference in making investment decisions and is not intended as solicitation or recommendation of investments. Any financial products for which we provide advice under an investment advisory agreement may incur losses due to fluctuations in interest rates, currency prices, market conditions of financial instruments, or software malfunctions. Risk factors include price fluctuation risks of securities, interest rate and financial market volatility risks, liquidity risk from inability to trade under sufficient liquidity, credit risk of issuers of securities, and currency risk when investing in foreign-currency-denominated assets. Therefore, customers’ invested principal is not guaranteed, and the principal may fall below the original investment due to decreases in the value of financial products. While we strive to ensure the accuracy of information, we do not guarantee the software's proper operation or other content. Individual stock selection and final investment decisions are the responsibility of the user, and we shall bear no liability for any losses or damages arising from investment results. Before applying, please review the contract and related disclosure documents.
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Fox of the Sky Bitcoin Newsletter
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