Central Plains Shun Report NASDAQ & Mothers No.017 April 19, 2021
1. Points
1. Mid- to long-term outlook (rise from March–June 2021; if more bullish, continue rising through 2022)
A long-term cycle started in February 2016, both rising waves. The price target for the high is June 2021 ± 1 year, i.e., from now to June 2022, with a price around 12,174 (9,481–17,404). It may have already topped out. Even so, there could be a rebound at the 13-month cycle bottom. If bullish, the target coincides with the high time zone around September 2021–February 2022 in the synthetics.
2. Short-term outlook (7th week of the 22.3-week cycle. Beware of sharp rises and falls. The 13-month cycle bottom may be in May–June)
At the PC and first MC, 7th week. Based on past wave behavior, if the high around the 16th can be broken, it should stay high until around the 27th. It will then correct toward the first week of May, but since the first MC is not yet completed, buy the dips. Ideally, it should rise for at least another 3–4 weeks after that.
3. Points to note (a high may form immediately from the 13-month cycle and a sharp decline may follow)
From this week onward, there is a possibility of an immediate top-out and decline in tandem with the 13-month cycle. In such a case, the drop could be quite large, so caution is required. Consider this a sub-scenario.
1. Mid- to long-term outlook (just bottomed a 46-month cycle. Waiting for a rise after forming a 15.3-month cycle bottom)
From April 2020, a new 46-month cycle and a new 15.3-month cycle began. The typical rising period for the 46-month cycle is 24 ± 4 months (19–28 months). Bullish through April 2022 (January–August 2022). However, the 15.3-month cycle may already have topped out.
2. Short-term outlook (17th week of the new 21.2-week cycle and 6th week of the second HPC [High-Price Cycle]. The time frame of the second HPC top)
Currently in the 17th week of the third 21-week cycle. Since the HPC bottom on March 9 has fallen below the price at the start of the PC, the rise in the second HPC cannot be overly optimistic, but a move toward 1,260, ideally 1,340, is expected. If cycle analysis is correct, once the attempt at a high is completed, a severe decline could follow for several weeks. You should exit positions on this rebound.
3. Points to note (the second HPC retracement is complete; a decline may begin immediately after this week)
The 21-week cycle has already topped out, and this week will resume a decline toward the second HPC bottom. Keep this as a sub-scenario.
For more, please see the PDF file.
× ![]()
