Central Plains Legend Report No.098 April 19, 2021

1. Points

＜NYSE＞

1. Medium- to long-term outlook (March 2020 marks the 12-year cycle bottom. A top of the 15.5-month cycle is expected to form in March–April) No change

The 4-year cycle and the 12-year cycle bottom out in March. The NY Dow is entering a strong upward wave aiming for March–June 2021, but a top-out of the 15.5-month cycle can occur at any time. After the top-out, a 2–3 month pullback is expected.

2. Short-term outlook (7th week of the new PC. The last rise toward the 15.5-month cycle top is continuing) No change

In the 7th week of the new PC. The 20th and month-end are important time windows. The 15.5-month cycle is toping out in tandem with this PC and will descend, but the first MC may be toping out soon. Because of the influence of the long cycle and seasonality and the “1” year, highs should be strong and pullbacks shallow. If the low occurs between April 20–30, that would be the MC bottom and set up a buying opportunity on pullbacks.

3. Points to note (the 15.5-month cycle may top out immediately and cause a 2-month pullback) No change

If the 15.5-month cycle tops out immediately, the 15.5-month cycle and the PC begin to descend simultaneously. In that case, the pullback would last 1–2 months.

＜Nikkei Stock Average＞

1. Medium- to long-term outlook (the March previous year's low is the bottom of the long cycle. A 15.5-month cycle bottom is expected) No change

The 4-year cycle bottoms out around the target time of March 2020. Since the long-term cycle has bottomed out, the first 15.5-month cycle remains bullish. However, since the 15.5-month cycle is expected to top around March 2021, the strategy is to buy the 15.5-month cycle bottom.

2. Short-term outlook (7th week of the new PC. Buy the first MC bottom) No change

In the 7th week of the new PC. The first MC is likely to be shallow, so last week’s consolidation may already have formed the MC bottom. Alternatively, the MC bottom may form on 4/20 or 4/26. Given early-year wave patterns and April seasonality, if the MC bottom forms, further upside is anticipated.

3. Points to note (if the 15.5-month cycle has already topped, there could be until June for a pullback) No change

The secondary scenario assumes that the top formation occurred on February 16 or March 18, forming a bearish divergence and that the 15.5-month cycle has already topped. In this case, a sharp decline could resume from this week onward, with pullbacks likely continuing until around June.

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