In a stagnant market, the 'selling side' has the upper hand. From Hiro Koya's "From the Technical Room" July 23
Hiroshi Arano's 'From the Technical Room' July 23, 2017 9:46 AM
Streamer: Hiroshi Arano
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Even in a high-price range, the short sellers'
unrealized P/L ratio does not worsen
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Since the May holidays, a market in a high-price range has
continued with consolidation. Limiting to "margin trading,"
buyers tend to buy at high prices, and sellers tend to increase
short selling in the high-price range.
There is.
The buyers' unrealized loss rate has exceeded the sellers',
(the buyers' unrealized loss rate is larger) which occurred in the
week after the Nikkei Average hit its March high (~3/24);
however, since then the buyers' unrealized loss rate has remained larger.
When the Nikkei Average rose into the 20,000 level, some market
participants spread the erroneous claim that "the sellers are in a bind,"
but as the data below shows, this is clearly a misconception.
Since the May holidays, prices have been stuck in a high-price range,
but during this period the unrealized loss rates of the "sellers" and
the "buyers"
(5/12~7/14) Unrealized loss rate
Sellers ▲0% to ▲3%
Buyers ▲6% to ▲9%
have moved within this range, with no shift in advantage to the sellers.
No.
When prices update to higher highs, the factor that accelerates the market
is the short-covering by the "sellers" as seen during the Trump shock,
but there is no such situation now.
I plan to approach the market with the premise that the upside remains heavy.
Hiroshi Arano's 'From the Technical Room' July 22, 2017 7:01 AM
Streamer: Hiroshi Arano
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There is a market term often used, "the extreme of the shadow" (陰の極), but now it might be the "immovable extreme." It means the pinnacle of not moving.
I looked at the Nikkei Average's day-to-day percentage change on a monthly basis since last year.
(Nikkei Average, day-to-day percentage change)
Over +1% Over -1%
2016 Jan 4 8
2016 Feb 5 7
2016 Mar 5 2
2016 Apr 6 4
2016 May 4 2
2016 Jun 6 5
2016 Jul 4 5
2016 Aug 4 5
2016 Sep 2 5
2016 Oct 1 1
2016 Nov 4 3
2016 Dec 3 1
Yearly total 48 48
Be it good or bad, 2016 stock prices moved up and down.
Now, let's look at this year's moves on a monthly basis as well.
(Nikkei Average, day-to-day percentage change)
Over +1% Over -1%
2017 Jan 3 4
2017 Feb 2 2
2017 Mar 3 2
2017 Apr 4 2
2017 May 1 1
2017 Jun 2 0
2017 Jul 0 0
(Note) July is up to the 21st.
Movement is shrinking month by month. Since hitting 20,000 on 6/02, seven weeks have passed,
but the day-to-day change percentage has never exceeded ±1%. I don't recall such a period lasting 34 trading days without
the day-to-day change exceeding ±1%.
US stocks move even less than Japanese stocks, and among them the Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved by more than ±1% only five times since the start of the year.
Even the Dow has not moved beyond ±1% since May 17. In both Japan and the US, 'no movement' has become the norm.
Nevertheless, there is a big difference between the Dow continuing to set new highs and the Nikkei’s price movement being unable to move higher due to the stalemate.
Japanese stocks that cannot move much up or down imply a lack of direction. This period of small moves will eventually be broken in the near future. At present, the probability of a downside move is slightly higher than that of an upside move.
Hiroshi Arano's 'From the Technical Room'
Monthly 4,500 yen
