2017.7.24 07:10 USD/JPY price movement forecast and scenarios
Dollar-Yen Forecast: Reviewing the Previous Dollar-Yen Price Movement Forecast
It’s entering a volatile climax, so I viewed the chart with the preconceived notion that the downward trend might be “about to end.” Without a big move upward at least once, the trend won’t change, right? When the trigger for moving up fails to reach the target at all, one must quickly sense that the trend is strong to the downside. If you hold on and push back risk-cutting measures, you end up widening the injury in such situations.Previous Dollar-Yen Forecast July 21, 2017 07:25 Posting Scenario (Click the image to go to the article.)
Previous Dollar-Yen Forecast July 21, 2017: Dollar-Yen 15-minute Chart
Today’s Dollar-Yen Forecast: Building a scenario for Dollar-Yen price movement
As on Friday, this is a difficult situation. Even on a daily chart, the 111.000–111.500 range is a point where price has been stuck, and if it falls below here, there is a high possibility of moving further down. However, on daily and 4-hour charts, the points near which the decline might stop are approaching, so actively shorting now carries a high risk. If you short, it might be safer to firmly break 111.000 and confirm that you can’t break back up on a pullback.＜Posted 2017.7.24 06:35＞
● Scenario 1
If price breaks upward from the range around 111.050–111.200, it could rise to around 111.350–111.400, then consolidate or adjust. If it consolidates, it might range around the 20MA on the 60-minute chart with about a 15-pip width. A breakout above that range could reach around 111.550–111.600. A pullback or breakdown from the range could drop toward around 111.050.
● Scenario 2
If price breaks downward from the range around 111.050–111.200, it could fall toward around 110.800, then consolidate around 110.800–111.000. A breakdown from that consolidation could put it around 110.750–110.650. A breakout to the upside could send it up toward around 111.200.
If price breaks upward from the range around 111.050–111.200, it could rise to around 111.350–111.400, then consolidate or adjust. If it consolidates, it might range around the 20MA on the 60-minute chart with about a 15-pip width. A breakout above that range could reach around 111.550–111.600. A pullback or breakdown from the range could drop toward around 111.050.
● Scenario 2
If price breaks downward from the range around 111.050–111.200, it could fall toward around 110.800, then consolidate around 110.800–111.000. A breakdown from that consolidation could put it around 110.750–110.650. A breakout to the upside could send it up toward around 111.200.
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