Analysis when a losing streak continues! What is the approach?
Good work everyone!
This is Nobushi!
Tokyo has been a bit warmer this week.
But as always, the COVID-19 situation remains... When you stay at home longer, you get restless, right...
Right now, I’m diligently working at my main dental practice, and I’m refraining in my private life!
Now, this week's USD/JPY Winner is a bit sluggish...
Only two entry signals have occurred so far...
And both were losses in a row—our momentum is not great!
The reason is that the current USD/JPY has entered a range market,
and there is little directional conviction.
In the first place, Winner is a tool that reads the emergence of a trend, so
when a range market continues, the frequency of signals decreases.
With traditional trend-detection tools, range markets often cause whipsaws and big losses...
which is not uncommon.
To put it positively, Winner may be enduring two losses in a row in a market full of whipsaws?
That’s my impression.
Even looking at last year’s data, there were months with negative results, though they were rare.
However, I think it’s at least a necessary period to push toward positive results on an annual basis.
Now, let’s review the two trades from Monday to Wednesday this week.
This is a Winner signal caused by a large bearish candlestick during a range market.
Among whipsaws, this pattern is common.
If the range continues for a while, the Bollinger Bands contract.
Then, when a sudden drop or rise occurs, you might mistake it for a trend forming.
As a countermeasure, you can wait for a pullback to the moving average before entering.
However, if you find it difficult to judge, don’t meddle with discretionary decisions—just take the loss properly.
Accept that it’s a necessary loss and rely entirely on the signal; that approach is easier.
This happened simply because there wasn’t enough energy in the market to surpass the most recent low, so nothing to be done about it.
There’s nothing you can do here, so cut your loss properly!
By accumulating these experiences, you must understand that you will eventually come out ahead.
We’ll wait with anticipation to see what signals remain for the rest of the week!
Stay tuned!
Winner introduction video：https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/15/17609
Original indicator “Winner” public page:
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/17623
“PIONE” public page：
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/25272
