You can gauge the advantage through the bankruptcy probability of Varcala (Valsala)? Actually, the name appears as バルサラ. The text says: "Knowing the bankruptcy probability of Balsara reveals the edge! Your FX life will drastically change with just 5,000 y

In studying exchange, you may hear about the probability of bankruptcy for Balsara.

However, many articles merely explain this, and while there are more examples nowadays on how to use it to achieve success, it still seems there are not many that show practical how-to cases.

We have already shared this example in pattern recognition and the Psychological Line, among other contexts.

This time we return for a refresher, but first I would like to mention a little more about the probability of bankruptcy for Balsara.

There are a great many tables on the bankruptcy probability of Balsara.

Of course there are differences among these tables, but many do not describe the underlying causes, making them of little use.

A必須 point to check when using these tables is the percentage of capital deployment.

Because this capital deployment percentage varies, the numbers listed in each table will have discrepancies.

If we do that, we must say that a table without any stated investment rate is completely meaningless.

As this failure shows, information must be constrained to indicate what kind of properties or scope it has and what content it represents.

This is surprisingly often missing even in meeting situations, and such data will be meaningless data, so you need to be careful.

We have resolved the issue of the capital investment ratio.

Next, what becomes important is that ratio.

There are general rules such as the 5% rule and the 10% rule.

Additionally, in popular discourse, it is said that people making large trades operate with investment ratios of 1% or 2%.

These are the numbers that indicate the investment ratio.

In fact, in the bankruptcy probability of Balsa, once the investment ratio falls below 10%, the probability of bankruptcy dramatically decreases.

If you consider safe operation, it is clear that aiming for investment below 10% is a good guideline.

With this, we have roughly enumerated the important points in Balsa’s bankruptcy probability table, but the results of trading using this table have not yet been shown.

First, let's consider using examples of patterns.

Patterns called double tops and head-and-shoulders do not have surrounding information from other indicators.

Therefore, it is unreliable to derive win rate or profit/loss rate from these alone.

I believe clarifications will become apparent once you actually take a lecture.

What I want to focus on this time is to first identify the target and stop-loss area, and then consider on your chart whether the risk-reward ratio within that range functions.

Regarding targets, besides the article on understanding target measurement in the [Basics] Eyewear! 10 Minutes FX⑤ = Technical =, there are various other targets such as the zero-sum point of a range, the half-wave value, and the regression line where the absolute rule collapses, among others.

For stop losses, keep them at points with near-term highs or lows where there are buy or sell premises, and allow for a bit of buffer in the stop-loss width.

Please visualize how these conditions change the numbers in Balsa’s bankruptcy probability table when the risk-reward changes.

As you start to have a sense of the numbers to some extent, you will intuitively understand whether a given method can stay in the positive territory when trading.

Of course, you should not rely solely on intuition; you must also consider data based on statistics in addition to your intuition.

Next, let’s use an example of psychology.

Here, we will list the absolute-law collapse.

The absolute rule is a single standard that says “all psychological lines cannot be broken at once,” which serves as a yardstick for direction, but there are many situations where such a simple yardstick still works.

If we consider scenarios where two moving averages are crossed simultaneously, the first moving average is broken once to reach the second, so the rule “cannot be broken at once” is violated.

Therefore, in the future, prices may return to touch the first moving average.

In other words, this point can be recognized as a changing target.

Such zone recognition could also be included in sections like [Important Materials], Zone Recognition and Scenario Construction, ⑤ Half-Wave Push and Pattern Recognition, ⑥ Risk-Reward by Range, = Analysis and Backtesting =, ⑦ Importance of Range, etc., but depending on the depth of the article, it might be only touched upon, so please ask in the lecture for details.

You already covered, in [Basics] Episode 10 and in [To Avoid Being Fooled] Episode 10, that you first assemble the materials and then build a portion of it.

In addition, as you become able to use more information and averages that will appear in the future, a part of the advantages that were previously invisible will become clearly visible.

That is not something you achieve immediately; as you actually face the chart and think, information will gradually connect, and you will develop information as coherent, functional objects.

Investing is not like ordinary exams where you can just do this and that and be done.

Failures will inevitably accompany it.

Whether those failures are unavoidable or whether there are countermeasures, making this clearer is likely a necessary part of the analytical process to avoid repeating the same mistakes, but what do you think?

Even though many people may not immediately grasp the bankruptcy probability of Balsa, there are many who trade by arbitrarily deciding amounts when considering important capital management; if you properly understand the meaning of Balsa’s bankruptcy probability, you can use it skillfully to make higher-precision trades.

Like rules, you should not do things arbitrarily; first, understand in your head the theory and structural advantages in a way that fits the actual chart, and then gradually add filters and adjust as needed while repeating, in order to cultivate the method and theory.

Not assuming you will never fail, but by gradually making corrections while expecting failure, you may come to master things you should not do and things you must do.

Since you have learned Balsa’s bankruptcy probability, from now on, let’s move beyond endless resetting and practice a practical understanding that moves forward.

And that concludes this study for now. See you next time.