The presence or absence of expected value changes the risk of being deceived and the accuracy of your strategy! Your FX life can dramatically change with just 5,000 yen in this series [To avoid being deceived] ⓾=Understanding risk recognition= about under

A ceiling has occurred on the chart you are looking at now.

Does that behavior indicate something about going higher?

Theoretically, it surely indicates an upward tendency.

However, once an expectation arises from this behavior, until it is absorbed, the expectation can serve as a bias guide and move downward as well.

Have you ever experienced this when looking at a chart while watching economic indicators?

Even though economic indicators showed a strong (good, bullish) result, the chart behavior appeared weak (bad, bearish).

If you’ve traded for a long time, you must have seen this many times.

Whether you notice it or not makes the difference that this expectation exists.

Knowing this expectation versus not knowing it changes both the probability of being deceived and the precision with which a strategy works.

There are infinite kinds of expectations, even when described in a single word.

1. Upper and lower limits of the range

2. Regression from absolute rules due to a single break of the moving average

3. Targets as the range of price movement measurement for pullbacks and retracements

4. To the targets after the conditions of Bollinger Bands are met

Today, we will explain by using those topics as examples.

What we have just looked at are the expected values as a flow to always check: range, market perspective, wave, and candlesticks.

For why you must check these, please refer to other articles.

The market is said to move precisely, so until all the components actually align, you can only pursue behavior with a vague image in your mind.

If you analyze without any材料, you will understand that the accuracy of the analysis has its limits.

Even so, when there is an expected value, it is like being in a fog on the sea with a faint island visible ahead.

Seeing the island faintly helps you understand the destination.

Now, let’s quickly explain the previous topics in order.

1. Upper and lower limits of the range

The upper and lower limits of the range serve as psychological lines.

During the period before the range is actually broken, prices move between these upper and lower limits.

It is extremely dangerous to trade at the first break point when breaking out of this range.

What is called the early phase, the behavior of players, basically stems from stop-losses of people who were trading inside the range.

That behavior is unstable each time; sometimes it breaks briefly and is pulled back, other times it continues and becomes a trend.

Taking long or short trades at this point can be seen as trading on the premise of being fooled.

A prudent trade as a trend-following strategy is to enter after the breakout from the range, the post-break behavior becomes established.

In other words, if you view the first range breakout as a pass, you can ride the trend in the same situation as the followers after the early phase, reducing the odds of being fooled.

Thus, there is an expected value as a trend-following setup.

As a contrarian material, if the price breaks out of the range with a single break and reaches the target, and if the range was highly mean-reverting, it tends to revert to the upper or lower edge of the range.

By understanding these progress and directions, you can avoid rashly jumping on a trend with a simplistic strategy that gets fooled.

2. Regression after an absolute rule break due to a single move of the moving average

Moving averages are simple in behavior, but their accuracy tends to depend on the behavior of higher timeframes.

When influenced by higher-timeframe movement, there can be tens of pips of extension, and with continued movement you may wonder how far it will extend.

However, no matter how far it extends, if a moving average with strong mean-reversion is broken by a single break, most of the time it will return to the broken moving average.

Of course, progress depends on market sentiment.

In this case, to trade as a contrarian, you need the materials that complete the trend-following setup, and it is essential to secure a risk-reward to limit the risk of contrarian trading.

If you feel no discomfort trading contrarily within a capped risk, you are a seasoned market player.

Conversely, traders who think contrarian trading is nonsense when a trend exists simply lack a broader view.

Analysis is not just about measuring advantage; it is about seeking possibilities while deliberately limiting risk to improve accuracy.

Relying on numbers or theory alone diverges from the purpose of analysis.

True analysis employs a variety of材料.

3. Targets as the measurement of price range for pullbacks and retracements

This is easier to understand if you actually search for price range measurements and keywords.

Price range measurements include V, E, N, NT calculations, and various targets are estimated for each.

From our gauge, all targets except NT calculations match the V calculation targets, so pullbacks and retracements theoretically occur about 75% of the time, doubling the range, reaching the target.

Not always guaranteed to be consumed as an expectation, but if you explore the conditions under which this expectation is easily realized, it may provide clues to problem-solving.

Also, since this achievement rate often aligns with win rate, even when considering bankruptcy risk (as per the Bernoulli principle), if risk-reward is secured, an edge is maintained.

Being able to view it this way can distinguish beginners from experts.

4. Targets after the Bollinger Band conditions are met

Finally, in the [Basics] Eye-Opening! Understand in 10 Minutes FX 10 = Strategy/Scenario = Using Bollinger Bands 0.5 Touch [High-Probability Method], I would like to reuse the information.

After the conditions are met, how far the lowest candlestick will extend can be studied as one indicator using Bollinger Bands 0.5 Touch (note that accuracy drops if the technical settings diverge; please check in lectures or inquiries for details).

For materials that yield win rates above 90%, price ranges are small and risk-reward breakdowns may be a concern, but if averages and overall numbers balance, there is no problem.

However, dependence and overuse should be avoided.

Ideally, edge is guaranteed through repeated trades that do not raise issues in strategy.

There are still many other expectations that become functional by recognizing the psychological line, but see them as future study topics for your learning material.

I hope this topic serves as a trigger for some change in your trading, and that you train to master it well.

With that, this session ends. See you next time.