Presidential Election Right Before – A Review of the Election System–

よろしくお願いします today as well.

This is Ere.

※This article does not指示 or recommend buy/sell timing.

Please make your own investment judgments.

Review of the election system

https://diamond.jp/articles/-/249624

DIAmond Online has summarized it clearly, so I will paste the link.

Unlike in Japan, the election system here is somewhat more complex.

In each state, residents vote through a somewhat different electoral method, and the Electoral College (distributed by population) votes based on the results, so the actual right to vote lies with the electors.

Also, of the 50 states, most 48 states use the winner-takes-all system, so California, for example, would yield 55 electoral votes, as noted in a BBC article.

Because of this system, even if the total popular vote is higher, one may lose in electoral votes and be defeated, as happened with Hillary Clinton in the previous election.

Contested swing states

So, how should we view the outcome of the election?

The victory threshold is 270 electoral votes.

The United States covers a vast area with wide disparities in wealth, and there are many areas with fixed political leanings.

There are regions that traditionally vote Republican and regions that traditionally vote Democratic. In the past, campaigns may have spent campaign funds on advertising there, but in recent years both camps tend to avoid pouring funds into areas where the outcome is already decided.

This time as well, the same campaign approach was followed.

For example, California and New York, which have a liberal-leaning base, are Democrats strongholds.

They together hold 84 votes and will almost certainly go to the Democratic side.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/eefcb1c92c73d2853f6ba6a63edec8d715b96d1e/images/000

Yahoo News provides a good summary, so I will reproduce it here.

The reason swing states are reported in the news is because there are many floating voters in Japan, and the outcomes change depending on the situation at the time.

As you can see in the image, there are many states that are usually Democrat-favored without doing anything, and it is not an overstatement to say that the presidential election will be decided by the outcome of about 180 gray states shown in the image.

Various news sites are releasing live vote counts this time as well, but

https://vdata.nikkei.com/newsgraphics/presidential-election2020/kaihyo/

I think the swing state live updates from Nikkei are the easiest to read, so it would be good to refer to those.

Currently the Dow average has retraced half of its decline and touched a horizontal line, then pulled back slightly by the close.

From a technical standpoint, if it breaks upward, there is a possibility of an upward trend; if it rebounds, the decline may continue—an interaction at a critical line.

In Dow Theory, the chart is said to have priced in everything, but before major events it tends to stay near the line, and what happens next depends on the event.

Later, when we review the chart, the technicals have moved quite cleanly, which is why.

The counting of votes will begin shortly.

The author does not intend to take leveraged positions and would like to watch the election results unfold.