The market is reserved trades and fixed-time only trades
People talk about probabilistic thinking or strategic thinking, but
in the end, it just sublimates into reversing trades like buying and selling
and because you end up losing and keep losing
if you are going to consider probabilistic thinking
if you were to build a theoretical framework around it, you would finish with a single reserved trade or one entry within a certain period
trade → wait for the result
this repetition
12-hour wait → reserved trade and direction following
trend: wait 3 hours for a trend entry → wait 12 hours
if you don’t wait 12 hours, the market won’t move and you won’t get results
therefore reserved trade for 12 hours is the correct approach
anything else becomes a matter of how you trade
the price movement within a fixed period is already determined
price moves within a fixed period are a known quantity
so trading recklessly is itself a mistake
time waiting plus trading logic
just find a “logic that can increase” within the “time waiting”
that is
it was simply 12-hour waiting plus reserved trading
even if there are other trading logics
the focus should be on a compounding logic that does not introduce variance within a fixed period
nothing changes from time waiting
discretion, in a word, is
to be involved in averaging down, pyramid schemes, martingale, Darabent or similar
in hindsight, there are many such logic bets
therefore discretion is merely random trading, and it’s better not to waste time because it’s even less than random trading
if you’re talking about discretion
the essence of discretion is like live roulette or live blackjack
discretion, in essence, refers only to live roulette or live blackjack
trading should be close to a non-discretionary level as a condition
only then does it become the Holy Grail and can continue to grow
discretion
if you think in terms of non-discretion
averaging down, pyramid, martingale, Darantel, and reversal
these are single or combined trading elements that qualify as discretion
to be frank
you repeatedly average down to make profits, and take losses in a bear market
and increase it in an offsetting way
since a trend only ends when averaging down occurs, many people end up stopping trades knowing they will lose
averaging down
let profits run when they appear
in a market where the trend continues, cut losses
until the market turns profitable, keep taking trading breaks
if you’re going to average down
it’s still better to do a netting martingale
if you do not use a stop loss
netting is everything
netting does not get affected even if spreads widen
with a stop loss, you confirm losses
if you analyze the market, you won’t win
the market has no intrinsic fair value; that alone is everything
minimize the number of trades
keep losses small
that’s all; if you’re going to place a stop loss, at least use netting
the effectiveness of averaging down is almost zero
averaging down is meaningless unless it’s in the Darantel family
if you net, only trade in the trend direction for a short time
make small profits and that’s enough
netting covers losses and profits, but it isn’t about making big money
it’s done to increase turnover
loss cutoff line
one averaging down → if it breaks from averaging down
re-trade conditions when a trend appears
discretion
in roulette
red/black, high/low, columns
discretion generally involves equal bets of about 1:1 or 1:2
even with trends, you would hardly go beyond about 1:2
averaging down
in red/black terms, it’s about consecutive red streaks or continuity
also for trend-following, column continuities
stop-loss rules are absolute
12-hour waiting with reserved trading is an absolute item
reserved trading stands on the same logic as discretion, which is why it is an absolute item
focus entries that are in a trend into one
diversifying has no meaning; diversification only makes sense in range trading
besides, trends move under the same logic
if you break the trend, none of them yields profit, so it’s meaningless
if you can’t become a master of equal bets, you can’t grow with discretion
if discretion cannot be refined, you cannot grow
if you want to trade in the same way as automated trading
you might as well use just time-waiting reserved trades
even discretion should be trades based on market movement with time-waiting reserved trades
to grow capital,
conduct capital increases against a stable mechanism
what constitutes a stable mechanism
live roulette + 1:2 return or red/black reverse martingale once
in FX, this is worth considering
to capitalise in the market, you must move
if moving yields profit, everyone profits
what becomes important here is that you can profit in the market
if profit is possible, averaging down will eventually yield profit, but
only if you have a stop loss in place
and the market must move past that entry
then the market should move using support/resistance and stair-step patterns
support/resistance forms a W
stairs form an N
that’s all
and that is why it must be done with “only reserved trading” and “only within a fixed time”
what you do is limited
within 12 hours the market moves, so reserved trading is enough
trend-following markets are limited
