Market commentary on marshmallows 1009 ~ Price movements cannot be predicted • To win … ~
Greetings everyone
I am Marshmallow.
Today, I have two points to share with you all. If you don’t mind, please take a look.
【A Trader's job is to wait for opportunities】
Good morning. I will review yesterday's market. The market hardly moved yesterday, and rather than applying the usual trend-following trading, I attempted a contrarian trade for the day, but the price movement did not even reach the level I was aiming for.However, to those who have said they cannot win in FX no matter what, having a day with “doing nothing” or “being unable to do anything” may be a step forward as a winning trader. When I was a beginner in investing, I wanted to hold positions at any cost, what you might call a “position-itis.” Without any real basis for my entries, I would buy for some reason or sell when prices rose, engaging in what was essentially gambling rather than investing or asset management. Looking back, I believe it would be almost impossible to generate profits from investments in that manner.
However by defining an investment rule and proceeding to enter only when the rule is met, and to refrain when it is not, and repeating this relentlessly,
Expressing this in words and writing is easy, but in practice, waiting and continuing to wait until conditions meet the rule is tougher than one might think. Especially if we fail to wait yesterday, we would be violating our entry rules, and whether we win or lose, we would be trading with no reproducibility, rendering it likely just self-satisfaction gambling.
【Future price movement is unknown】
I will say this again and again, even with the latest AI analysis or using the most advanced systems costing hundreds of billions of yen, predicting future price movements is almost impossible. If anything, you would gain only a marginal edge of about 1% to 5% at best.
Furthermore, chief analysts and technical analysts at financial institutions cannot predict price movements either. If you doubt this, try recording everything economists and financial commentators say and then check the subsequent price movements. Of course, if you gather data from about 1,000 people, there will be a few who are right, but that is like a lottery, so you should keep in mind that such individuals are not necessarily more skilled.
※ Example of a lottery
In a 1,000-person knockout tournament for rock-paper-scissors, there will be someone who finishes first and someone who finishes second. However, that does not mean they will always be first or second every time; there is a certain randomness involved.
【Today's market analysis】
Based on these ideas, I will explain today's market. Even if you cannot predict price movements, determine your trading criteria based on a reliable edge in the market, and rather than predicting price movements, respond to them, so you can remain in the top 0.1% of the market. For today's strategy, we will start by displaying the resistance zone...
Thank you again for your continued support today as well (*^-^*)
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