Market commentary on marshmallows 1005 ~ How to aim for the top 1% in the market ~

Hello everyone

I am Mashumaro.

Regarding today's market commentary,

since it is influenced by President Trump’s actions,

and also because it is Monday at the start of the week,

I would like to proceed with a short-term scalping approach without forming a strategy.

【This week's market outlook is available here】

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/22918

Regarding scalping methods

we have described resistance levels and scalping techniques for paid members below, so please check it. Thank you very much for your kind consideration.

【Aim to be in the top 1% of the world at all times】

Today, I would like to talk a little about the theme of becoming part of the top 1% winners in the market. Data from securities firms shows that the share of people who win in investments is variously reported as 10% or 5%, butin FX trading, I believe the proportion of winners is about 0.5%–1% of the total. The reason is that among those labeled as successful by FX firms are people who began investing years or even over a decade ago and continue to win, and many of their trades are not frequent but rather they hold positions long and profit from swap interest, etc. Therefore, the number of people who win purely by trading is far smaller than the numbers presented by the firms.

However, I personally believe winning in FX is very simple; as the above figures indicate, if you are in the top 1% overall, you can win in FX.In other words,if you strive correctly in the right direction more than the other 99%, you can win in FX,

So, one point: last Friday I bought the Nikkei 225 futures, kept the position through the weekend, and closed today with huge profit. I would like to explain why I chose a long position in light of the above discussion.

【Contrarian market psychology】

When advising beginner investors, I recommend trend-following. However, in market psychology and crowd psychology, contrarian moves can be appropriate.

Last weekend’s crash was caused by President Trump testing positive for COVID-19, triggering a risk-off in the market. I believe this was because Biden’s chances of defeating Trump in the upcoming presidential election were perceived to rise, reducing Trump’s re-election probability, and the market had already priced in this risk. I thought that the more positive news about Trump’s condition or discharge from hospitalization could move the market more than current levels, so buying positions offered a higher expected value. I do not contrive contrarian moves solely on price movement, but I regularly engage in contrarian strategies that exploit market psychology.

I believe this contrarian view of market psychology is actually what helps one enter the top 1%.

Those who consistently win in investing are a small minority, so having a somewhat contrarian view may be advantageous. Fortunately, I have a somewhat contrarian personality, which may make it easier to win in the market. Therefore, going forward, I will continue to provide both my usual plain-market commentary and occasionally my contrarian discretionary market commentary.

【In conclusion】

This has become a bit lengthy, but there are two points I want to convey to you:

➀ If you strive in the right direction more than the other 99%, you can win in investing

➁ Sometimes contrarian thinking that can deceive the other 99% may be necessary for winning

so I will continue to work harder than the other 99% and trade to exploit market gaps. Please continue to support me this week as well.

This is Mashumaro, who can be a little mischievous in personality (*´Д｀)ｗ

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Account:https://twitter.com/mashioka777

Now, I will provide the market commentary for 1% members.