The third week of September!! Mr. Oshiri Trader
Delivery date: 2020/09/13 22:00
Week 3 of September!!
Good evening.
I'm Oshiri.
Last week's headline news was about Ukraine, wasn't it?
A clergyman who said that “COVID-19 is divine punishment for same-sex marriage”
was found to be positive on a PCR test. That's what it is.
Yep.
This news is creeping up, isn't it?
It's totally unrelated to the market, but the Oshiri Family sent a screenshot with the comment "funny news."
That's just the way the Oshiri Family is, right? Where do they even find these?
So last week followed the same blog-as-script, huh.
Thank you.
Since everyone writes in the Twitter replies things like "It was just as in the blog!", I think it makes me want to properly write the next blog as well.
So this time too, I'll do my best to recap the week.
Monday the 7th
This day the US market was closed, so there wasn't much price movement.
It was really a boring development, so I mostly played Knives Out.
There wasn't any fundamental data to highlight, and technically there wasn't any pattern to be concerned about.
When NY is on holiday, it usually looks like this, so let's not throw ourselves into trades blindly.
One thing I did notice is that starting this day the 200MA has been attracting attention.
I've been saying on Twitter a lot lately that "the 200MA is ironclad" and "the 400MA is firm"; from these you can guess, and on Oshiri's chart those two moving averages are present.
That means "they should be used."
If you haven't shown them yet, please show them asap.
Use is simple. Don't use them as GC/DC; use them as resistance only.
Some of you may be using GMMA, but to be frank it's hard to read and overlaps with other lines on the chart, which is a nuisance.
(This is just my personal opinion, so I am not denying GMMA.)
Therefore remember that adding more moving averages or other lines isn't always better.
In the end, I think it's best to limit the technical indicators you pay attention to to about three when making investment decisions.
I think you should establish these through experience, so I won't just tell you "these three" here, otherwise more people will rely on them, so I won't say.
It's the technicals you should absolutely trust at the final decision, after all.
So Monday there was nothing special.
Tuesday the 8th
There was movement today, wasn't there ~
That was nice.
During the day there was no movement, but again the moving averages were being watched.
Moreover, "blatantly."
This kind of scenario I personally call a "training market."
It's just my personal view, so I doubt you'll find it in search.
What it's like is the price repeatedly rebounding off moving averages and other technical indicators.
Then, the bias is that it will rebound again next time.
And when that rebound grows bigger, it breaks out all at once.
Not just this time; recently this kind of movement seems very common.
The cause is probably major investment entities doing it on purpose, I think.
Around 4 PM on Tuesday, the dollar-yen fell sharply, but just minutes before I looked at the position distribution,
106.250 buy 7.22%
106.350 sell 2%
Everything else was under 1% and the trading volume was obviously low.
Since open positions were overall skewed to the sell side, they made the 200MA vicinity (106.250) look firm at the bottom, raised it to around 106.360 to force the shorts to cover, and finally settled my long positions and placed new short orders to take advantage of the drop at settlement. A small-scale version of distribution.
In addition, risk-off from investors with pessimistic Brexit opinions is also in play.
As German finance minister Scholz had said the previous day that there is no hope for a Brexit deal, the euro and pound are both showing suspicious vibes. We'll keep tracking this information.
From NY, risk-off selling led the way. As noted in last week's blog, selling in Dow and Nasdaq was quite solid due to fears of SBG's call long liquidation.
Dollar-yen didn't fall further as much as I thought, but it declined moderately and entered a range. It traded around 106.000 for a while and closed within that range.
I'm Oshiri.
Last week's headline news was about Ukraine, wasn't it?
A clergyman who said that “COVID-19 is divine punishment for same-sex marriage”
was found to be positive on a PCR test. That's what it is.
Yep.
This news is creeping up, isn't it?
It's totally unrelated to the market, but the Oshiri Family sent a screenshot with the comment "funny news."
That's just the way the Oshiri Family is, right? Where do they even find these?
So last week followed the same blog-as-script, huh.
Thank you.
Since everyone writes in the Twitter replies things like "It was just as in the blog!", I think it makes me want to properly write the next blog as well.
So this time too, I'll do my best to recap the week.
Monday the 7th
This day the US market was closed, so there wasn't much price movement.
It was really a boring development, so I mostly played Knives Out.
There wasn't any fundamental data to highlight, and technically there wasn't any pattern to be concerned about.
When NY is on holiday, it usually looks like this, so let's not throw ourselves into trades blindly.
One thing I did notice is that starting this day the 200MA has been attracting attention.
I've been saying on Twitter a lot lately that "the 200MA is ironclad" and "the 400MA is firm"; from these you can guess, and on Oshiri's chart those two moving averages are present.
That means "they should be used."
If you haven't shown them yet, please show them asap.
Use is simple. Don't use them as GC/DC; use them as resistance only.
Some of you may be using GMMA, but to be frank it's hard to read and overlaps with other lines on the chart, which is a nuisance.
(This is just my personal opinion, so I am not denying GMMA.)
Therefore remember that adding more moving averages or other lines isn't always better.
In the end, I think it's best to limit the technical indicators you pay attention to to about three when making investment decisions.
I think you should establish these through experience, so I won't just tell you "these three" here, otherwise more people will rely on them, so I won't say.
It's the technicals you should absolutely trust at the final decision, after all.
So Monday there was nothing special.
Tuesday the 8th
There was movement today, wasn't there ~
That was nice.
During the day there was no movement, but again the moving averages were being watched.
Moreover, "blatantly."
This kind of scenario I personally call a "training market."
It's just my personal view, so I doubt you'll find it in search.
What it's like is the price repeatedly rebounding off moving averages and other technical indicators.
Then, the bias is that it will rebound again next time.
And when that rebound grows bigger, it breaks out all at once.
Not just this time; recently this kind of movement seems very common.
The cause is probably major investment entities doing it on purpose, I think.
Around 4 PM on Tuesday, the dollar-yen fell sharply, but just minutes before I looked at the position distribution,
106.250 buy 7.22%
106.350 sell 2%
Everything else was under 1% and the trading volume was obviously low.
Since open positions were overall skewed to the sell side, they made the 200MA vicinity (106.250) look firm at the bottom, raised it to around 106.360 to force the shorts to cover, and finally settled my long positions and placed new short orders to take advantage of the drop at settlement. A small-scale version of distribution.
In addition, risk-off from investors with pessimistic Brexit opinions is also in play.
As German finance minister Scholz had said the previous day that there is no hope for a Brexit deal, the euro and pound are both showing suspicious vibes. We'll keep tracking this information.
From NY, risk-off selling led the way. As noted in last week's blog, selling in Dow and Nasdaq was quite solid due to fears of SBG's call long liquidation.
Dollar-yen didn't fall further as much as I thought, but it declined moderately and entered a range. It traded around 106.000 for a while and closed within that range.
......
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