(5-day average > 20-day average) Will the condition continue? Mr. Hiroshi Koya
Stock price indicators (5-day average & 20-day average)
and the advance/decline ratio (20-day average & 60-day average) are checkpoints
As of now, the 5-day average has surpassed the 20-day average as of 8/13, and yesterday it has passed 25 days.
Since April 2019, the Nikkei 225's 5-day average has exceeded the 20-day average for 20 days or more in a row,
as shown in the table below, together with price movements.
(Duration of the 5-day average > 20-day average) state, duration and stock price
Cross day, during the period
Period Days Price at that time High Increase
2019/06/12–07/18 26 days 21,204 yen 21,754 yen (07/02) 550 yen
2019/09/03–10/03 21 days 20,620 yen 22,098 yen (09/24) 1,478 yen
2019/10/16–11/22 26 days 22,207 yen 23,520 yen (11/12) 1,313 yen
2019/11/27–01/06 25 days 23,373 yen 24,066 yen (12/17) 693 yen
2020/04/07–06/23 52 days 18,576 yen 23,178 yen (06/08) 4,602 yen
2020/08/13–09/16 25 days 22,843 yen 23,559 yen (09/14) 716 yen
(The 5-day > 20-day) condition has led to a significant rise in stock prices during this year's April–June when it persisted for a longer period.
The remaining four instances ended after a little over one month. In that sense, the current situation is somewhat delicate.
That means we are at a delicate stage.
Surprisingly, what supported the solid market above was the next indicator after the advance/decline ratio.
That corresponds to the period when the 20-day average of the A/D ratio was above its 60-day average.
(A/D ratio: 20-day average > 60-day average)
Period Days
2019/06/05–07/30 39 days
2019/09/03–11/13 47 days
2020/04/06–06/12 46 days
2020/08/14–09/16 18 days
The periods where the above tables overlap are the strongest in the short term.
As of yesterday, the 5-day average was 23,426 yen, the 20-day average 23,209 yen, and the advance/decline ratio was 121.0% of the 20-day average.
The 60-day average is 100.2%.
The uptrend remains in place, but this week the market has started to show some heaviness, entering a delicate stage.
That is also a fact. We will tighten our daily data checks going forward.