Central Plains Shun Report No.068 August 31, 2020 ☆☆ NY Dow Jones and Nikkei Average ☆☆
Points
＜NYSE＞
Medium- to long-term outlook (March 2020 marks a 12-year cycle bottom. Further declines are expected to be shallow due to policy effects) Change
The medium- to long-term outlook followed the wave of the “0” years, peaking in February. Subsequently, the 3–4 year cycle’s 3–15.5 month sub-cycle was shortened to 9 months due to policy effects, and the 12-year cycle also bottomed out in March. If this interpretation is correct, the NY Dow is entering a sharply rising wave aimed at March 2021. Short-term declines are also expected to be shallow due to policy effects.
＜Nikkei Stock Average＞
Medium- to long-term outlook (the trough of the long-term market cycle is the February 19 low) No change
The 15.5-month cycle and the 4-year cycle bottomed in March at the target time window. Since the long-term cycle has bottomed, the first 15.5-month cycle is bullish. However, 2020 may see a deep pullback from a “0” year (very bearish) due to a down 4-year cycle.
