【Free Article】8/10 Market Analysis
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※This article does not instruct or recommend buy/sell timing.
Please make your own investment decisions.
Today the Tokyo market is closed for a holiday.
Therefore there will be no swap movements, and intraday price movement is expected to be relatively calm.
Therefore there will be no swap movements, and intraday price movement is expected to be relatively calm.
Because it seems the simplest strategically, I will add gold analysis again for a change.Today’s article is a bit long, but let’s do our best today as well.
Today I’m noting this as a free article for the first time in a while, not necessarily due to Obon.
Today I’m noting this as a free article for the first time in a while, not necessarily due to Obon.
This isn’t specifically because of Obon, but to express the meaning of writing an article like this, I’m listing today’s portion as a free article for the first time in a while.
The fate and analysis of the dollar index I wrote yesterday are closely related, so those who haven’t read it yet, please start there.
A good portion is written here, so I will omit unnecessary analysis.
Dow
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose significantly near the week’s end, breaking above the 27370 level and closing at a new high.
The recent high is 27640 in June, but based on experience, I expect a pullback that may break above the high in this pattern.
The recent high is 27640 in June, but based on experience, I expect a pullback that may break above the high in this pattern.
If it breaks through, there is a very high likelihood of a strong up move, so I’d like to enter on pullbacks, but the pattern is quite tricky.
First support-turned-resistance around 27370 where it broke through.
Next is 27220 which was defended on Friday.
Not supposed to drop below 27165, a three-tier level I plan to buy at.
First support-turned-resistance around 27370 where it broke through.
Next is 27220 which was defended on Friday.
Not supposed to drop below 27165, a three-tier level I plan to buy at.
XAUUSD
First, since it’s been a while, a daily chart.
On the daily level, a bullish engulfing pattern appeared, so gold should temporarily pause long positions.
The most recent support is the open price of the previous day, and of course the close price of the day before yesterday, around 2050.
Monday’s strategy is very simple: place the upper resistance line here.
If it breaks through by 3–5 dollars, there’s a possibility of returning to an uptrend.
However, if it is blocked here, there is a risk of switching to a stronger short-term downtrend, so proceed with caution.
On the daily level, a bullish engulfing pattern appeared, so gold should temporarily pause long positions.
The most recent support is the open price of the previous day, and of course the close price of the day before yesterday, around 2050.
Monday’s strategy is very simple: place the upper resistance line here.
If it breaks through by 3–5 dollars, there’s a possibility of returning to an uptrend.
However, if it is blocked here, there is a risk of switching to a stronger short-term downtrend, so proceed with caution.
I will add a brief explanation.
This is a 5-minute chart with a few triple-top formations, all of which have been negated.
However, keep in mind that this particular triple top looks a little different this time.
However, keep in mind that this particular triple top looks a little different this time.
The indicators currently displayed are very simple EMAs: 12, 26, 50, 200. The difference this time is that after the right shoulder falls below, the head is held down.
Moving averages are essentially the break-even points for the number of days.
When the MA is rising, a long position for that period is in positive territory.
When it falls, the opposite is true.
And long positions are closed as shorts.
Traders who are already holding unrealized losses may want to close near their entry price if that’s the case, right?
Keep in mind that such dynamics are likely to occur going forward.
Gradually the time frame will extend and the structure will break down; at present, even the 5-minute and 15-minute charts are showing breakdown.
When the MA is rising, a long position for that period is in positive territory.
When it falls, the opposite is true.
And long positions are closed as shorts.
Traders who are already holding unrealized losses may want to close near their entry price if that’s the case, right?
Keep in mind that such dynamics are likely to occur going forward.
Gradually the time frame will extend and the structure will break down; at present, even the 5-minute and 15-minute charts are showing breakdown.
If it spreads to the 1-hour chart, a daily-level correction is expected, so in a sense, Monday’s target level becomes the most important rate for gold.
There is resistance at around 2044 dollars, but otherwise prices are basically in a vacuum, so there are few levels where prices should stop.
The vicinity of 2050 dollars is the neck line that was broken.
It is also the 50% retracement of the decline, so it is a crucial level.
If you just watch this area, you can operate even without a position currently.
Given the chart is breaking down and the dollar index situation, the basic strategy is to sell on rallies.
If a short positioned here breaks Friday’s low, there is a high chance of a swing short, so I would like to try to take profits even if it costs a bit of risk (lot size will be kept small).
The vicinity of 2050 dollars is the neck line that was broken.
It is also the 50% retracement of the decline, so it is a crucial level.
If you just watch this area, you can operate even without a position currently.
Given the chart is breaking down and the dollar index situation, the basic strategy is to sell on rallies.
If a short positioned here breaks Friday’s low, there is a high chance of a swing short, so I would like to try to take profits even if it costs a bit of risk (lot size will be kept small).
EURUSD
Gold and eurocharts look a bit similar.
This is also a sell-on-rallies setup.
The most important level is around 1.182.
As a preceding candidate, around 1.1805, effectively around 1.18, around that area.
Since the channel has broken clearly and a trend has formed, I plan to monitor price action around the cited levels.
As with gold, if prices rise above, I would need to reassess the strategy.
From the chart patterns, that possibility seems slim, but sometimes fundamental factors force a stronger move.
This is also a sell-on-rallies setup.
The most important level is around 1.182.
As a preceding candidate, around 1.1805, effectively around 1.18, around that area.
Since the channel has broken clearly and a trend has formed, I plan to monitor price action around the cited levels.
As with gold, if prices rise above, I would need to reassess the strategy.
From the chart patterns, that possibility seems slim, but sometimes fundamental factors force a stronger move.
Nevertheless, the approach is simple, so just wait.
GBPJPY
5-minute chart.
Look at the red line; this is a range-bound market.
As I’ve written before, this is just trading within a box range and is not influenced by the dollar, so set alerts on the upper and lower lines and remove from chart monitoring.
You could try to take the middle of the range, but trading in a range while missing out on trends is common, so I do not recommend it in this article.
Look at the red line; this is a range-bound market.
As I’ve written before, this is just trading within a box range and is not influenced by the dollar, so set alerts on the upper and lower lines and remove from chart monitoring.
You could try to take the middle of the range, but trading in a range while missing out on trends is common, so I do not recommend it in this article.
However, given external conditions, I would expect a break to the downside.
Selling into rallies on one side would maintain an edge.
Selling into rallies on one side would maintain an edge.
Range-bound, so I’d rather not take many positions, but around 138.5 could be an appropriate rally-sell rate.
USDJPY
The USDJPY is currently in a triangle consolidation.
It’s a fairly large triangle and near the apex, so a Monday break is expected.
If it breaks, you can ride the side that breaks; there’s hardly any strategic indecision.
One of the trendlines is likely to hold, so the back is clear.
If it breaks, you can ride the side that breaks; there’s hardly any strategic indecision.
One of the trendlines is likely to hold, so the back is clear.
From yesterday’s article, the basic strategy is still to buy on dips.
This also forms a range, as expected.
No need to touch it yet.
Be ready to join in when a trend emerges.
No need to touch it yet.
Be ready to join in when a trend emerges.
USD/CAD
Currently the下降 line is pressing down, and the chart appears to be entering a minor correction.
There is also the fundamental factor that the US may impose tariffs, so a buy-the-dip strategy is recommended, but the dip level is quite challenging.
The main target is the 1.333 level around a horizontal line.
If prices can drop to this vicinity, I plan to build positions.
There is also the fundamental factor that the US may impose tariffs, so a buy-the-dip strategy is recommended, but the dip level is quite challenging.
The main target is the 1.333 level around a horizontal line.
If prices can drop to this vicinity, I plan to build positions.
AUDUSD
This chart resembles EURUSD to some extent.
If it retraces to the neckline area, I’d like to sell on rallies.
I’ll skip the same reasoning here as with EURUSD.
If it retraces to the neckline area, I’d like to sell on rallies.
I’ll skip the same reasoning here as with EURUSD.
Summary
Overall, many charts resemble each other, and it seems all are driven by the dollar.
Cross currencies are range-bound.
The more you touch of the dollar crosses, the more risk you incur.
Strategically, it may be prudent to limit dollar crosses to about two or so instruments.
The fact that they move similarly means doubling positions would be similar to doubling lot sizes.
Cross currencies are range-bound.
The more you touch of the dollar crosses, the more risk you incur.
Strategically, it may be prudent to limit dollar crosses to about two or so instruments.
The fact that they move similarly means doubling positions would be similar to doubling lot sizes.
It may be safer to diversify across 3–4 instruments in commodities, currencies, and indices.
Crosses are very tricky, but trying one or two to hold a position on a downside bet might not be bad.
Now that Tokyo is closed, I would like to say Europe comes first, but please be mindful of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opening time.
There is a possibility of dollar buying by Hong Kong traders.
Crosses are very tricky, but trying one or two to hold a position on a downside bet might not be bad.
Now that Tokyo is closed, I would like to say Europe comes first, but please be mindful of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opening time.
There is a possibility of dollar buying by Hong Kong traders.
Europe is expecting dollar selling, while New York contemplates dollar buying, so my focus is on how much Europe can push.
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