7/5 Weekend Market Analysis
Dow
4-hour chart
After the favorable US employment report at the end of last week, the price rose strongly out of a descending channel but is now falling as it’s being repelled by the 26,200 horizontal resistance.
The rising trend line has also been breached, and it looks like a temporary consolidation phase.
However, as confirmed in the previous article, the current flow is tilted upward for the time being, and during the US holiday period, it doesn’t look like a weekend with active buying; rather, it feels more like profit-taking rather than opening new shorts.
The downward trend line has not yet been broken, and if it drops toward the vicinity of 25,600–25,400 near this trend line, I would like to buy on dips.
1-hour chart
This timeframe is suitable for day trading, but on the 1-hour chart an orange tentative downward trend line is forming (the “tentative” label is because there are few intersection points).
The current focus is whether this orange downward line can be broken.
Also, considering the consolidation conditions, there is a possibility of moving to a box range, so the key is whether it can clearly break above the upper horizontal at 26,000 dollars.
Currently, the Fibonacci levels are moving cleanly, so drawing them now makes it easier to grasp the current situation.
Personally, if it bounces off the orange line and moves between the red trend line and the orange trend line, it would form a descending wedge, making entries easier and offering an ideal dip-buying point; I would like to monitor the situation.
In terms of market conditions, this is not a stock that should be aggressively entered.
USD/JPY
4-hour chart
This also shows a chart quite similar to the Dow.
In this price range, I expect a box range similar to a green box.
There is currently no particular catalyst creating a gap between the dollar and the yen, so a range-bound movement is expected to continue.
A slanted trend line is less effective; a simple strategy of selling near the top and buying near the bottom horizontal levels, and cutting losses if it breaks out, would be appropriate.
For ease of day trading, I’ll reduce to 15 minutes.
Go long after confirming a rebound as indicated by the red arrows.
If it breaks below support, cutting it could keep the risk-reward ratio high and allow for solid positioning.
USD/JPY is not a pair to hold a long swing for long, as capital efficiency would be poor; it’s better to engage in short-term positions.
EUR/USD
Most markets are in a similar environment, and this pair is also in a continuing corrective phase.
However, it is gradually making higher lows and a so-called SOSA bottom is forming.
Although it will take time, since 1.135 is the neckline, I’m thinking of waiting for a break of this level and then taking a long entry.
GBP/JPY
4-hour chart
The downtrend correction has finished, and it is returning to the rising channel.
It is a chart that suggests going long near the lower channel boundary.
1-hour chart
However, when lowering the time frame a bit, you can see a clearly functioning downward channel with a center-line, so this consolidation phase is likely to continue for a while.
For day trading levels, short entries at the upper limit of the downward channel could be appealing.
I anticipate a breakout to the upside after a triangle consolidation.
OZN/JPY
4-hour chart
A clean upward channel has continued to form.
The portion protruding in March should be viewed as a mispricings.
In this channel, the center line is also acting strongly as it moves, so.
When the channel breaks downward, it would naturally become a price to watch, but for now, there is no need to consider it.
1-hour chart
It is forming a shape similar to an ascending triangle.
Like the euro-dollar mentioned above, the strategy should be fine.
However, early Monday morning there is Australia’s policy rate decision, so sharp moves can be expected in the pre-dawn hours.
If it goes lower, it may break the trendline as well.
Please be careful of the early-morning moves.
Gold
Daily chart
Gold has continued a steady ascent up to this point, but is now testing the last resistance before the all-time high and is rebounding.
I’ll look at a lower timeframe as well.
4-hour chart
After breaking the upward trendline extending from around 1670 dollars several times, it has returned inside the trendline, but around 1780 dollars there isn’t enough buying, forming a potential evening star-like pattern, suggesting the chart may top out.
Be cautious about chasing highs; wait for a pullback.
1-hour chart
With the high approaching a ceiling and the trendline also being broken, upward movement is capped, so a rapid drop is likely to be bought, but this too could remain in a consolidation phase for a while.
Around 1780 dollars, there could be a slight advantage for short-term trading.
The current horizontal levels I’m watching are around 1747 dollars and 1730 dollars; if it falls to near these levels, the advantage may shift toward long positions.
× ![]()
