Trend-following type "Morning Swing" K-Cody_GBPJPY_M15 is gaining popularity
Although we have just started measurements in June, the number of users is already increasingK-Cody_GBPJPY_M15 toGogojungle TDS Backtest in Quant Analyzer, and we would like to present the results.
K-Cody_GBPJPY_M15 is an EA dedicated to the GBP/JPY 15-minute chart.
Generally, the logic of entering in the early morning in Japan time and exiting with a small profit is called “morning scalping,” but this EA embeds a logic to enter in the early morning Japan time and maximize profits, in other words, it can be described as a “morning swing.”
The execution timeframe is the 15-minute chart, but the goal is to ride the trend at the 1-hour level, and it is a swing-type EA that is held for several days.
The indicators used are mainly two: moving averages and RSI; from the programming stage we aimed to keep things simple to avoid over-optimization.
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Positions may be held up to three at once, but this is not intended for averaging down. It is independent positioning that simply aligns with the entry timing.
Max Stop Loss 120 Others: Varied by internal logic
Take Profit 315 Others: Varied by internal logic
As noted on the EA page, the standout feature is that it is a swing-trade type that enters in the morning Japan time.
Because swing trading involves a relatively deep max stop loss of 120 pips and weekend position carryover, the maximum drawdown may become large. I will also pay attention to this in the backtest results.
Let's examine the 17-year TDS backtest results equity curve starting from September 2003.
From the equity curve, there has not been a pronounced maximum drawdown.
The figures are in dollars, but the data used are yen-based values, so please convert to yen.
Spread :Variable
Lot size :0.1
Annual average profit :¥268,788
Monthly average profit :¥22,291
Annual return : 31.25%
Win rate :61.32%
Annual average number of trades: 139
Average profit per trade :¥10,394
Average loss :▲¥11,554
Maximum drawdown:▲¥350,658(14.31%)
Next, let's look at the monthly status.
Monthly status
There aren’t many winning months.
However, as mentioned in recent articles, according to NEET’s automated FX trading blog that investigates the spreads used by Dukascopy for TDS,NEETがやるFXの自動売買ブログsays
2005年1.61→2010年1.01→2015年0.41→2019年0.37(pips)
と変わって来ているとのことです。K-Cody_GBPJPY_M15が使うポンド円も同様であると考えられます。
近年に近づく程、負ける月が少ないので、スプレッドが狭い環境では有効に機能すると考えられます。
年毎状況
年毎で見ると、最近は安定しています。今年は半分を折り返したところで、すでに昨年を上回っていますね。
【推奨証拠金とリターンは?】
GogoJungelのシステムトレード実績計測で採用する推奨証拠金(25倍のレバレッジを前提としたもの)の計算式は
1万通貨単位×取引通貨の日本円レート÷25倍×ロット数平均÷0.1×最大ポジション数+最大損失(バックテストの最大ドローダウンを採用)×2
ですので、
¥1,322,400(本日のレート)÷25÷0.1×3ポジション +¥350,658(最大ドローダウン)×2