Over 800 pips per year, a 3-position EA that trades both trend-following and counter-trend strategies 『CROCUS_USDJPY』
EA Overview
This is an EA for USD/JPY with three positions.
ForwardGained about 160 pips in a little over one monthand it has been showing a steady P/L curve.
TP and SL are also 1:1, designed to avoid gradual losses turning into a large drawdown.
Backtest Analysis
2010.01.04-2020.06.19
Spread 10 (1 pip)
1.0 lot fixed
Maximum DD 6689 USD
Annual average number of trades 268
Average winning Pips 11.8 pips
Average losing Pips -19 pips
Annual average winning Pips 885 pips
Annual average profit 8853 USD
Recommended Margin (for 1.0 lot)
{(4500)×3}＋(6689×2)＝26878 USD（約290万円）
Note: The recommended margin is calculated under 25x leverage so that maximum drawdown is 50% of the free margin
Expected annual yield 33%
Therefore, it is recommended to start with around 250,000–300,000 JPY per 0.1 lot.
An annual return of over 30% indicates an excellent EA with stable high profitability.
Yearly and Monthly Profit/Loss
▲ Yearly Profit/Loss
2011 and 2013 performed particularly well; 2017 had relatively lower profits, but not extremely low, and overall it consistently yields high profits.
▲ Monthly Profit/Loss
Position holding time and entry times
Position holding times ranged from as short as 2 minutes to as long as 3 days.
On average, it seems to be about 2–8 hours.
▲ Time-based winning trades / losing trades
It appears to be a type that only enters at specific times.
What Kind of Trades Does It Make?
Blue: BUYSince it buys during a downtrend, it performs short-term counter-trend long entries with up to 3 positions and closes them in one go.
It engages in pullback buying in an uptrend and contrarian selling.
On a 5-minute chart, it seems to perform both trend-following (buy on dips, sell on rallies) and contrarian trading.
Trading frequency with 3 positions is under 300 times per year, which might seem a little low, but with a win rate of 70%, it appears to select high-precision entry points.
Is Compound Interest Better or Simple Interest?
Compound interest is suited for EAs with high win-rate and high-frequency trading, but CROCUS’s trading frequency is somewhat lacking.
Nevertheless, with a 70% win rate, if you want to start with a small margin, compound operation will be more efficient.
The compound operation MM setting uses 0.1 lot per 100,000 yen, so relative drawdown is expected to be larger.
A compound-backtest was run over three years, including 2017, the year with the lowest profit in the backtests.
▼2017–2019 Three-Year Period
Relative DD 43%, net profit +$19,575,3 years, +190% increasewas achieved.
▼2014–2016
Relative DD 23%, net profit +$77,0003 years, +770% increaseresulted.
Whether to use simple or compound interest depends on user preference, but if you plan to operate for more than 3 years, a single account with one EA using compound operation is recommended.
