5/1 Today's USD/JPY – Masamitsu Hashimoto's "FX Outlook"

(Strategy) Dollar range, counter-trend, within the week look for selling opportunities,
(Comment)
The USD/JPY monthly chart has formed a dragonfly doji, and the near-term 108 yen area low will be a buying opportunity or a buyback.

Breaking below here will resume the dollar-weak trend. This month, we will check how far the dollar's rebound high at the start of the month can go; the key points are at 112.20 yen and the 114.70–115.50 yen zone.

If it exceeds 115.70 yen, the dollar will become neutral. The downside support is at 108.10 yen, and if breached, it will move toward the 105–106 yen range. The trend remains biased toward testing around 105 yen.

This week, it will be 109.30 yen (breach below 108.10 yen) to 112.30 yen (if it moves past 113.60 yen).

Sell on rallies around the 112 yen level; if a low forms in the 108 yen area, switch to long.

For shorts, there may still be room to sell even in the 113 yen area, with a brief pause at 122.45 yen to reopen the shorts. Meanwhile, longs will be closed when in profit. Even if we buy in the 108 yen area once, unless it returns to the 120s, the dollar will be in a weak trend.

Today, in the 111.00–112.20 yen range; take a light position at 111.80 yen, and increase selling in the 112 yen area.

Place the stop at 112.45 yen. For weekly trading, sell the latter according to the above.
On the downside, if it reaches 111.10 yen or below, buy the dollar on dips; set the stop at 110.75 yen. If this holds and it ends in the mid-110s, the rebound cap would be limited to 112.30 yen.

(May 1, 9:01; 1 USD = 111.34 yen)

Masamitsu Hashimoto's "FX Outlook"

Monthly: 3,240 yen