Mr. Hiroshi Arano The uptrend will continue.

'steady' market shows no signs of breaking down

Publication date: 2020/06/11 06:57


The condition of the closing price being above the 20-day moving average has lasted 44 consecutive days as of yesterday, matching the 44 days from September–November 2017.
From today onward, we will attempt a length not seen in the past few years.
Moreover, as of yesterday, the deviation from the 20-day moving average was +7.25%, which is described as 'overheated'
+5% or more has continued for 12 days. As long as the deviation rate does not dip below +2%, the steady market is considered to be continuing.
and at present, the near-term uptrend is expected to persist.

Continuing from yesterday, the 20-day average of the (Advance-Decline Ratio + RSI)

I stated that when the 20-day average of the (Advance-Decline Ratio + RSI) exceeds 200, it is evidence of a strong market.
From 5/26 to yesterday, the 'sum' has exceeded 200 for 12 consecutive days.
During the rise period from Sep to Dec last year, the days when 'the sum' exceeded 200 are listed below.
(Number of days the 20-day moving average of the Advance-Decline Ratio + RSI exceeded 200)
Sept 2019: 10 days; Oct 2019: 5 days; Nov 2019: 9 days; Total: 24 days

A strong market—arguably an overheated market—continued from September through November, but
the stock price also reached new highs in December, and the 20-day average of the Advance-Decline Ratio + RSI clearly fell below 100%
until then, the upside pursuit continued.

'After an overheated state there is a period during which prices are supported by residual momentum. At the very least
I believe the uptrend will persist for another 1–2 months.