The market has already started to price in an outcome, but is an diplomatic resolution difficult? U.S. aircraft carrier within range of attacks toward the north

On the north’s commemorative day when we were on alert, the result was

that they did not proceed to nuclear test.

But for medium-range missiles at most, they seemed to have obtained the assessment that it would be below the line of U.S. military action.

Meanwhile, all of the North's medium- and long-range missile tests have failed, and there are rumors that the U.S. military is

disrupting them with cyber attacks, which, if true, could allow the U.S. military to avoid taking overt military action.







The media have been reporting that the X-date is approaching every day, and the U.S. aircraft carrier “Carl Vinson” has

entered the Sea of Japan (the waters east of the Korean Peninsula), further heightening the tense mood.

However, from the opinion of analysts who have gone a step further, there is also no likelihood of armed conflict arising from this situation,

and honestly, there are many ways to end the matter without taking so much time.

Still, I believe the dynamics among each country will likely decide the course from here.



As I wrote in the previous week's article, the Russian military is already deployed near the North Korea border,

and their movements are still unpredictable; depending on circumstances, they may side with North Korea.

If a formal statement comes from Russia, markets could move significantly, so we should stay vigilant.



We investors are simply gathering information to avoid being swung by geopolitical risk, so

the basic aim is a diplomatic resolution, but if it ever comes to armed conflict, markets will move greatly.

For investors there are risks, but also opportunities to profit.



Markets have already begun to price in the North Korea issue, and risks have receded for now,

the USD/JPY is breaking through 110, and the Nikkei Stock Average is in the 19,000s.

There may be another drop this week due to geopolitical risk, but

the retracement from Trump’s honeymoon rally is underway, and the USD/JPY is

likely to reach the high 112s as a close this week, which would push it to test the upside.



The dollar cross also rebounded, and especially Euro-dollar moved back to just under 1.10 last week

This point sits at the lower boundary of the weekly cloud, so next week the cloud will twist, presenting resistance, but

if it breaks through, it could fully revert last year’s decline when the UK left the EU, becoming a notable point to watch.

Cross-yen has also rebounded from a dip and is restoring gains, and this week it will be notable whether the Euro-Yen breaks above the weekly cloud’s upper bound.





Domestically it’s Golden Week, and many individual investors are traveling domestically and abroad, but

this week the North Korean issue has not subsided, so if the market environment changes

I plan to update the “Market Compass.”



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