Highly anticipated employment statistics release! "June 5th: Points of interest and event schedule"

The ECB Council, which was highly anticipated yesterday, was held. While a 500 billion euro additional easing was expected, the result announced was 600 billion euros in additional easing.

In response to the larger-than-expected easing, the euro rose; after some profit-taking and downward revisions to future economic forecasts, the euro recovered due to expectations of further easing policy and the COVID-19 recovery fund, and the EUR/JPY rose by about 2 yen.

Another concern is the rise in Japanese and American stock prices, such as the Nikkei and the Dow; they closed higher today although the gains were smaller than before.

There is concern that the employment statistics might be the peak.

◎ Today's Points of Focus

1) U.S. Employment Statistics

With the ADP report recently delivering a positive surprise, expectations are rising.

Forecast (Non-Farm Payrolls: -8 million, Unemployment Rate: 19.9%)

Whether the results can beat expectations, and the movements in stock prices and interest rates after the release are in focus.

Because expectations are high, there is a risk that employment statistics could mark a peak and then decline, so be cautious.

2) Canadian Employment Statistics

Canada's employment statistics will also be released today, so attention is warranted.

Forecast (Change in employment: -0.5 million, Unemployment Rate: 15%)

Since Canada's population is about one-tenth of the United States, -0.5 million in Canada corresponds to about 5 million if aligned with U.S. employment.

That indicates a significant hit to Canada's economy as well.

We will watch how far today’s results deviate from expectations.

3) Weekend Factors and Risks

Relations between the U.S. and China regarding Hong Kong are at a standstill.

The U.S. says it will withdraw special treatment for Hong Kong, but specifics such as when have not been announced.

Perhaps because no concrete plans have emerged, or because the first phase of the U.S.-China agreement continues, risk-off mode has not become dominant.

Britain plans to exclude Chinese companies from 5G and said it would support migration from Hong Kong.

This weekend, watch for any new announcements or concrete actions, and whether protests in Hong Kong expand.

Discrimination protests against Black people are spreading worldwide, centered in the United States, and show no signs of ending.

In New York, curfews have been imposed, and the virus's impact is hindering the economic recovery that had been gathering pace.

If such restrictions spread to other countries where protests are occurring, it could again stall the economy.

Attention is on the expansion of demonstrations and how various countries respond.

Because such risks could emerge over the weekend, it is important to position and manage risk carefully.

◎ Today's Event Schedule

Friday, June 5

21:30 USDNFP Employment Statistics, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate

21:30 CADCanada Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

23:00 CAD Ivey PMI

Saturday, June 6

02:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count

04:00 USD U.S. Consumer Credit

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