Feeling a week likely to be busy with many events! "Key points and event schedule for the week of June 1"
Last week, President Trump was extremely busy, and he was furious when fact-checks were attached to his own tweets on Twitter, so he issued an executive order targeting social media companies.
Domestically, protests broke out after white police officers restrained a Black man with excessive force, resulting in his death.
And around President Trump, policies regarding China, including scrapping favorable measures and tightening China sanctions tied to the Hong Kong National Security Law, have kept his circle busy.
With only five months left until the presidential election, attention is on President Trump’s moves.
◎ This Week’s Highlights
1) Policy Interest Rates
ECB Governing Council
This week’s council meeting will be watched to see whether they can agree on the 7500 billion euro Covid-19 Recovery Fund and what its contents will be.
Previewed content suggests that two-thirds of the 7500 billion euros, i.e., 5000 billion euros, would be provided as subsidies, and one-third, 2500 billion euros, as loans.
However, four countries including Austria have expressed opposition and argue that everything should be in loan form.
The Covid Recovery Fund will only materialize if all countries approve, so it’s important to see whether a compromise can be found in talks with the opposing countries.
RBA Governing Council
From the recent remarks by Lowe, the RBA Governor, while he rejected negative rates, there have been signals suggesting further easing, so markets will be watching whether additional easing is needed and whether an easing announcement will be made, as well as the policy statement.
Australia has reopened its economy after COVID, but deteriorating Australia-China relations are causing hindrances to trade, so market focus is on how much impact this will have on the economy.
Canada’s BOC Policy Rate
The Bank of Canada’s current Governor, Poloz, has left his term; the next Governor, Tiff Macklem, who is the President of the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management, will take office from June 3.
Pay attention to Macklem’s views in the policy statement.
2) Economic Indicators
ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI will be released, with attention on the business sentiment in the U.S. where the lockdown has prolonged.
Given that current economic data are known to be weak due to the pandemic, the focus is shifting to future economic reopening and recovery, and the index showing overall business sentiment is increasingly watched.
Employment Data
ADP and NFP employment data will be released, but worse-than-expected figures are anticipated and are already priced in.
Thus, reactions may be limited, but given the potential for outsized numbers, concern remains whether the reaction will truly be limited.
Furthermore, even if bad data trigger risk-off and dollar strength, predictions diverge on whether dollar buying will follow risk-off or dollar selling will occur due to weak indicators, so observation is warranted.
Unemployment data will also be released in Germany, Italy, Canada, and other countries outside the U.S.
Attention is on how much the pandemic's impact has shown up in these economies.
3) China
At last week’s National People’s Congress, China enacted the Hong Kong National Security Law, and the U.S. announced it would revoke Hong Kong’s favorable treatment.
Additionally, restrictions on visas for Chinese students studying in the U.S. and suspensions of investment funds into Chinese companies were announced as intensified sanctions.
With many countries, including the U.K., condemning the move, attention is on how China and various countries will respond to the Hong Kong National Security Law.
Taiwan is expected to come under pressure after Hong Kong, so watch the responses from Taiwan and China closely.
Taiwan has stated that it could serve as a refuge for Hong Kong’s financial activities, should conditions arise.
Questions remain as to whether Hong Kong’s status as an international financial hub will shift to Taiwan, whether talent will flow from Hong Kong to Taiwan, whether China will allow this, and how far the U.S. will back Taiwan, so relations with China are under close scrutiny.
◎ This Week’s Event Schedule
June 1 (Monday)
10:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
16:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI (revised)
16:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI (revised)
16:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI (revised)
17:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (revised)
17:30 GBP UK Manufacturing PMI (revised)
20:00 TRY Turkish Monetary Policy Committee minutes
23:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index
June 2 (Tuesday)
13:30 AUDRBA Board Policy Rate and Statement Release
June 3 (Wednesday)
10:10 AUD Block RBA Deputy Governor Speech
10:30 AUDAustralia Quarterly GDP (Q1)
10:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI
16:00 TRY Turkish CPI
16:45 EUR Italy Services & Composite PMI (revised)
16:50 EUR France Services & Composite PMI (revised)
16:55 EUR Germany Services & Composite PMI (revised) and Unemployment Rate
17:00 EUR Eurozone Services & Composite PMI (revised)
17:00 EUR Italy Unemployment Rate
17:30 GBP UK Services & Composite PMI (revised)
18:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
21:15 USDADP Employment Report
22:45 USD US Services PMI (revised)
23:00 USDISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
23:00 CADCanada BOC Policy Rate Announcement
23:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
June 4 (Thursday)
10:30 AUD Australian Retail Sales
17:30 GBP UK Construction PMI
18:00 EUR Euro Area Retail Sales
20:45 EURECB Governing Council Policy Rate and Statement
21:30 EURLagarde ECB President Press Conference
21:30 CAD Canada Trade Balance
June 5 (Friday)
21:30 USDNFP Employment, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate
21:30 CADCanada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
23:00 CAD Ivey PMI
June 6 (Saturday)
02:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count
04:00 USD US Consumer Credit
Okachan-man Recommended Analysis Tool
TradingView
It handles a wide range of currency pairs, commodities, bonds, stock indices, and offers various analyses on a single platform.
Forex, stocks, bonds, commodities — markets are interrelated, and comparing them across markets is advantageous for trading.
Overlaying currency charts with stock indices or commodities on one chart is very convenient for comparisons.
Many features are free to use, so why not give it a try!
It also includes social features, so please consider following us↓↓↓
https://jp.tradingview.com/u/okachanman/
