Crude oil prices rise! Can oil-producing nations follow Saudi's production cuts? "Key points and events schedule for May 12"

Yesterday there was an unexpected uptrend in USD/JPY.

I thought the market might drift due to a lack of material to drive direction, but I did not expect USD/JPY to rise this much.

Also, yesterday there were tweets circulating worldwide claiming ObamaGate? that former President Obama would be arrested, whether it was rumor or fact, and such tweets could not be confirmed.

If it were only rumors, that would be one thing, but since it has spread to this extent, it may become a point of focus moving forward if there is real concern.

It feels like just a rumor, though…

◎ Today’s Points of Attention

1) Crude Oil Price

OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE have begun signaling production cuts.

There are calls for additional production cuts to surrounding countries and OPEC and OPEC+) from Saudi Arabia seems to be making such calls.

The spotlight seems to be on Russia.

If Russia also moves to cut production, it could lift the bottom of crude prices.

2) U.S.-China Relations

Yesterday, President Trump again voiced dissatisfaction with China and criticized cyberattacks from China.

China is expected to push back, and there is a possibility of going to a breakpoint where there is no clear settlement, as last year.

Attention is required on statements from both sides’ leaders.

3) Decline in Risk Aversion

Globally, lockdowns due to the coronavirus have been relaxing.

With the easing of restrictions, risk-off sentiment has receded, but in China and Korea, where restrictions were eased quickly, infections appear to be rising again.

Considering the second and third waves of the Spanish Flu, a second wave from COVID-19 is expected.

Whether the increase in infections in China and Korea, where restrictions were eased, marks the start of the second wave is under close watch.

Additionally, as restrictions ease and risk-off declines, it remains to be seen whether new issues will arise that could hinder this trend.

◎ Today’s Event Schedule

May 12 (Tuesday)

10:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence

10:30 CNY China CPI (Consumer Price Index)

15:00 NOK Norway GDP

21:30 USD US CPI (Consumer Price Index)

22:00 USD Powell (St. Louis Fed President Bullard) and Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed President) speeches

23:00 USD Quarles (FRB Vice Chair) Harker (Philadelphia Fed President) speeches

23:30 EUR Stournaras (Greece central bank president) speech

May 13 (Wednesday)

03:00 USD US Monthly Budget Statement

06:00 USD Mester (Cleveland Fed President) speech

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