In a thin market, beware of fractals! "Key points and event schedule for May 4"
Today, a quiet market is expected in the Tokyo market due to the Golden Week holiday.
Last year, during the quiet Golden Week market, there was attention that a flash crash might occur.
Flash crashes tend to happen when people let their guard down, so this year, when there is less hype, we may need to be careful.
If the remdesivir approved last week in the United States is effective, it could be good for the US, but there does not seem to be enough quantity to cover all infected people worldwide immediately, so antiviral drugs do not necessarily mean infection control.
Naturally, the US is expected to prioritize its own use, so it will be interesting to see how much quantity can be secured and how much can be mass-produced.
What happened with Avigan...
Today there are no notable indicators, and attention seems likely to focus on whether risk-off will advance or retreat.
◎ Today's Points of Focus
1) Risk-off Factors
Some voices, centered on the US and echoed by Europe, say that the spread of the coronavirus may be due to China.
Naturally, China is pushing back.
There are reports that a Chinese woman who had materials related to coronavirus research, which may have caused the spread, fled to France.
Whether this is true cannot be confirmed, but if such information emerges, the West and East are likely to sharpen criticism of China and risk-off may accelerate.
Apart from that, North Korea's Kim Jong-un death rumors, body double rumors, and gunfire at the inter-Korean border are making North Korea's moves hectic.
Oil prices are not rebounding, and the question is when they will fall again.
There is also talk that wars could be started to push oil prices up.
Watch for whether it could lead to conflicts with North Korea or the Middle East.
2) Easing of Corona Regulations
As the pace of infection slows in the US and Europe, many countries are easing stay-at-home orders and other restrictions.
Attention is on how many countries will announce what level of easing.
If restrictions continue to ease, economic activity will resume and risk-off may retreat.
As easing progresses, keep an eye on whether the infection rate changes.
◎ Today's Event Schedule
May 4th (Monday)
16:00 TRY Turkey CPI (Consumer Price Index)
16:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI (revised)
16:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI (revised)
16:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI (revised)
17:00 EUR Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (revised)
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