Pay attention to the ECB Governing Council and the press conference! "Attention points and event schedule for April 30"
At yesterday's FOMC, the decision to hold rates was announced, and the statement and press conference passed with almost no market-moving news.
Before the FOMC announcement, reports about the antiviral remdesivir's effectiveness in the US led to positive news, and stock prices rose.
If drugs for COVID-19 become available, the economic impact of COVID-19 is expected to shrink, and attention will shift to the next risks.
Hidden risks behind COVID-19 that may draw attention include Kim Jong-un in North Korea and Brexit in the UK.
In Japan, the extension of the state of emergency is being considered, with a nationwide extension of about one month under consideration.
There are reports that an announcement may be made on the 1st.
Also, today is the end of the month, so I want to pay attention to the cash and FIX rates.
◎ Today’s Points of Attention
1) ECB Governing Council
Today's meeting is expected to keep policy unchanged.
What to watch are the statement and press conference: the economic situation halted by the coronavirus, regulatory status and the outlook for the economy, the impact of ECB stimulus, and future additional easing and policy measures.
I am curious how much the eurozone economy, where many countries like Italy and Spain have fully stopped economic activity and implemented long lockdowns, is deteriorating.
If deterioration is severe, the recovery could take longer.
Along with the economic outlook, I want to focus on the degree of economic damage and the prospects for future recovery.
Also, with negative rates and quantitative easing currently expanding to include junk bonds, I am wondering what the next move will be and what it will be.
There is also interest in whether there will be further depth to negative rates.
2) China Manufacturing
Today, two manufacturing PMIs will be released: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI from Caixin, a private survey.
The Caixin PMI is the more watched indicator.
Forecasts expect a reading above 50, with a consensus around 51.0, indicating expansion.
Whether it beats or misses expectations, and whether it remains above or falls below 50, will be key points.
Additionally, I will watch how Chinese stocks and the Australian dollar move in response to the results.
3) Stock Prices
Yesterday, reports that remdesivir showed effectiveness against COVID-19 and could gain approval led to risk-on behavior, with the VIX index plunging and stock prices rising sharply.
Nikkei futures briefly rose over 600 yen, easily reclaiming the 20,000 level.
Will this trend continue today?
Additionally, as US and Japanese stocks have rebounded to around the halfway mark of their COVID-related declines, will they fully recover or fall in line with the real economy? Keep an eye on stock prices.
◎ Today’s Event Schedule
Thursday, April 30
10:00 CNY China Manufacturing PMI
10:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
14:30 EUR France GDP
15:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales
15:45 EUR France HICP (Consumer Price Index)
16:00 EUR Spain GDP・HICP (Consumer Price Index)
16:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate
18:00 EUR Italy GDP・HICP
18:00 EUR Eurozone GDP・HICP・Unemployment Rate
20:00 MXN Mexico GDP
20:45 EURECB Governing Council policy rate and statement
21:30 EURLagard? ECB President press conference
21:30 EURUS initial jobless claims・PCE deflator
21:30 CADCanada GDP
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