Can you ride out the nightmare market?! This week, pay attention to the actions of the Russian military.

The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier that was greatly stirred up by the North Korea issue

The carrier strike group centered on the "Carl Vinson" is in the Western Pacific

and has begun joint training with the Japan Self-Defense Forces, and it seems to be advancing the matter by applying pressure on China rather than directly pressing the Korean Peninsula.

It has become unclear whether they will reach the Korean Peninsula by the North Korean People's Army Foundation Day on the 25th.

The situation is becoming uncertain.






Meanwhile, there are reports of Russian forces moving equipment toward North Korea,

and although the Kremlin has refused to comment on these reports, if they are true

attention is likely to focus more on Russia's actions than the U.S. Navy's moves.

In any case, it should become clear within a few days.



As a material to watch over the weekend, the French presidential election, and around the time the Tokyo market opens on the 24th

it is expected that most results will be known, and if concerns arise, the yen exchange rate will be targeted, but this is considered temporary.

However, if there is a upheaval, after a round of market sweeps, the euro-dollar will break out of its current range, and

it should be viewed as a temporary move.

So far, even with turmoil in Europe, U.S. stocks have not largely fallen, and

at present, the main material is considered to be the North Korea issue alone.




Although it concerns North Korea, we should pay attention to the movements of the United States, China, North Korea, and Russia,

especially this week with the unclear moves of North Korea and Russia.


In the market, the dollar/yen is expected to hover around 110; unless we break clearly above this level,

there will be no change from the current movement, but the cross yen pairs like GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY have also formed weekly candles

below the cloud, so if the dollar/yen quickly returns to the 110s, the cross yen pairs may also

aim for recent highs.

This week the monthly candle will be finalized, so we should also pay attention to the upper edge of the dollar/yen cloud.

And next week, domestic markets will enter the Golden Week, and it may be thought that this is an inopportune time,

but looking at “Sell in May” from a practical standpoint, there have been several years when equities fell sharply but

then rebounded with a stock rally and yen selling, in contrast.

Although domestic markets are buying yen and selling stocks due to North Korea risk even in the new April fiscal year,

this week, being the last week of the month and with the monthly candle being finalized, a retreat in risk may

lead to a change in the latter half of the week.

There is also a possibility of changes in the latter half of the week.


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