End of month, weekend, and 50 days! "Attention points and event schedule for April 24"

Yesterday's EU leaders' summit (video conference) was held, and while initial reports suggested euro buying due to expectations that coronavirus measures budget would be large, the conference failed to reach an agreement and, as reported, disappointment selling followed.

There was also a moment when reports about additional easing from next week's Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting led to a brief yen depreciation, pushing it into the 108 level.

Gradually, market movements are being driven by statements and reports on monetary and fiscal policy.

This is thought to be because the panic over the novel coronavirus is beginning to settle, and it may be a sign that monetary and fiscal policy will return to the center of the market.

◎ Today's points of focus

1) Crude oil prices

Yesterday's oil market regained some calm.

Nevertheless, the price gap between the June and July contracts remains wide.

This is due to rising crude inventories.

Also, President Trump's tweets about Iran have heightened Middle East tensions, and the resulting geopolitical risk seems to support crude prices, providing a floor for oil.

Oil prices are expected to attract attention again today.

Statements and headlines related to production cuts, oil-related measures, and the Middle East situation should be watched closely.

Today, the practical impact of the forty-ninth day (note: likely meaning "fifty-day moving average" or similar) should also be watched.

2) Emerging markets

Yesterday, even as crude prices stabilized, the Mexican peso hit new lows and the Turkish lira remained near its lows.

Emerging-market currencies such as the Brazilian real and the South African rand are weakening.

This does not mean an emerging-market currency crisis is imminent, but it could become a concern going forward.

Watch whether emerging-market currencies keep hitting new lows.

Emerging-market currency crisis here ↓↓↓

3) The euro

Yesterday's European PMIs underperformed expectations, indicating quite weak results.

Also, at the EU Summit (video conference), expectations were high for large-scale coronavirus measures, but no agreement was reached and it ended without one.

There is a sense that cracks may form between fiscally constrained countries like Italy and Spain and countries opposing fiscal expansion such as Germany, the Netherlands, and France.

Combined with the economic stagnation from the coronavirus, political issues threatening the eurozone/EU seem to be growing, which is weighing on the euro's upside.

Be cautious of headlines and statements related to the euro.

◎ Today's events schedule

Friday, April 24

15:00 GBP UK Retail Sales

17:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate Index

21:30 USD US Durable Goods Orders

23:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index

Saturday, April 25

02:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count

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