Attention is on the PMI速報値 released! "Key points and event schedule for April 23"

Yesterday, crude oil prices regained some stability, and it feels like it wasn’t a day where risk-off sentiment fully returned.

European and US stock prices remained firm, and the VIX index has fallen sharply.

Also, there are rumors in the market about the death of Chairman Kim Jong-un.

There are whispers that he underwent heart vascular surgery and that his condition has become severe since then.

If he truly has died, the question of who will be his successor and what policy North Korea will pursue has become a hot topic.

◎ Today's Points of Focus

1) PMI

Today, the速報 values of PMI for manufacturing, services, and composite indices, which have been drawing considerable attention, will be released.

Attention is on how pessimistic European, British, and US companies are, and how they foresee the economy going forward.

Because these are速報 values, there can be a large divergence from forecasts, and a large deviation may affect the currency market.

Recently, markets have reacted weakly to economic indicators, but PMI releases today reflect future business sentiments and the economy, so a reaction is expected.

2) Crude Oil Prices

Yesterday also saw moments of crude oil price declines.

Daily volatility can be nearly $10, with moves of $1–2 within minutes are possible.

Depending on the securities firm or exchange, circuit breakers may trigger, new trading may be halted, rollovers may be implemented urgently, and losses may be cut in crude oil trading and related markets.

Because crude oil-related topics are in high focus, prices react sensitively and can significantly affect exchange rates and stock prices, so caution is required.

3) Bank of Japan Easing

A sudden report of additional easing policy by the Bank of Japan.

Attention is on what to implement and to what extent, but also whether additional easing is even possible in the first place.

If reports of additional easing spread, yen depreciation may proceed.

However, since it is unclear whether additional easing is possible, if a decision to maintain the status quo is announced, there is a risk of further yen appreciation, so be careful.

◎ Today's Economic Event Schedule

Thursday, April 23

EU Leaders’ Summit (Video Conference)

15:00 GBP Retail Sales

15:00 EUR GfK Germany Consumer Confidence Index

16:15 EURFrance Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI

16:30 EURGermany Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI

17:00 EUREuro Zone Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI

17:30 GBPUK Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI

21:30 USDInitial Jobless Claims

22:45 USDUS Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI

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