Be careful with weekend position adjustments! "Key points on April 17 and the event schedule"

Yesterday, risk-off sentiment pushed the dollar higher, and the USD/JPY swung from 108 to 107 and back to 108, and it rose above 108 in the early morning.

Economic data such as US initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showed some of the worst numbers on record, shifting toward risk-off.

In response, the market rapidly incorporated the bad news, and risk-off sentiment receded.

With the clash between bad news and the speed of its being priced in, stock prices and markets have been repeating gains and declines.

If a trigger disturbs the balance and tilts in one direction, there is a possibility of a sharp move, so be cautious.

Today is Friday, so there is a possibility of a gap open next week, so I would like to adjust positions carefully.

◎ Today’s Points of Attention

1) China GDP

Today China’s Q1 GDP (January-March) will be released.

Given the early lockdown and the economy stagnating from late January, numbers are expected to be quite poor.

We will be watching how the market reacts to the outcome.

In particular, be mindful of the Oceania currencies.

China GDP Forecast

S&P: Forecast -13.0%
CICC: Forecast -9.3%
Goldman Sachs: Forecast -9.0%
BofA Securities (BofAS): Forecast -6.0%
UBS: Forecast -5.0%
Standard Chartered: Forecast -4.2%

2) Crude Oil Prices

The battle around crude oil around 20 dollars continues.

Saudi Arabia and Russia held a teleconference and began cooperating to address the oil price decline.

It is unclear how far measures can push oil prices up as demand remains weak, but keep an eye on headlines and oil prices.

Also, there is attention on whether some producers will start exiting at current oil price levels where profitability is low.

Prices at which exits begin will likely be the bottom; profitability issues will lead to淘汰, and supply-demand balance should stabilize at a bottom.

◎ Today’s Economic Event Schedule

Friday, April 17

IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings (through the 19th)

10:30 AUDAustralia Retail Sales

11:00 CNYChina GDP・ Retail Sales

23:00 GBPHolden BOE External MPC Member Broadbent speaks

02:00 USDBaker Hughes Rig Count

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