High employment and new unemployment insurance claims; G7 summit in focus! "Key points and event schedule of April 16"

Yesterday, unlike Mondays and Tuesdays, there was a risk-off flow with dollar buying, yen buying, and selling of Oceania currencies.

Whether it was because risk-off pushed down crude oil prices, or because the drop in crude oil prices advanced risk-off, WTI crude oil price fell to the low teens at one point.

The VIX index, which had just broken below the milestone of 40, is rising again.

In the retreat phase of risk-off, has there been a slight correction, or has the risk-off momentum turned again? Today's movements are in focus.

◎ Today’s Points of Attention

1) Employment

Australian Employment Statistics

The Australian employment statistics for March were released, with attention on how much deterioration there has been due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The unemployment rate is especially watched; the RBA had been using it for policy judgments before COVID-19 impacts.

The target seems to be the low 5% range or below 5%, and it is thought that they would not want to see the rate in the upper 5% range, as that might prompt additional easing measures.

The forecast for this unemployment rate is 5.5%, a borderline figure; if it worsens more than expected, AUD selling could accelerate, so this is a point to watch.

US Initial Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims, numbers that are released weekly and are orders of magnitude large, are forecast to be 6 million again this week.

In some estimates, it could be as high as 8 million.

Over three weeks, about 16 million unemployment insurance claims have been filed, and if this week's result is as forecast, it will be over 20 million claims.

Whether the results exceed or miss expectations, all eyes are on the outcome.

2) Remarks by Key Figures

There are many speeches by key figures scheduled for today.

Both the BOE and the FRB are thought to have limited room for policy, so market reactions to remarks by officials are expected to be limited.

Nevertheless, since anything can happen, it’s worth staying alert.

In addition to the scheduled speeches by officials, there are daily COVID-related remarks, so this is another focal point.

3) G7 Leaders Meeting & IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings

Recently, President Trump stated that he would stop contributions to the WHO.

This seems directed at China through the WHO rather than the WHO itself.

Today, leaders gather again at the G7, so attention is on what statements may arise.

There is also concern that the pandemic could push emerging markets into crisis.

It is important to see whether the IMF can extend relief to emerging markets and what measures will be implemented.

◎ Today’s Event Schedule

Thursday, April 16

G7 Leaders' Video Conference
IMF & World Bank Spring Meetings(Video conference, until the 17th)

10:30　AUDChanges in Australian Employment and Unemployment Rate

15:00　EUR　Germany HICP (Consumer Price Index)

17:00　EUR　Germany IFO Business Climate Index

21:30　USDInitial Jobless Claims・Building Permits・Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

22:30　GBPTenreiro BOE External Director Remarks

03:00　USDWilliams, President of the New York Fed Speaks

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