IMF and G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting Held! "Key Points and Event Schedule for April 16"

Yesterday, the IMF released its global economic outlook.

IMF's 2020 economic growth forecasts show the euro area at minus 7.5%, the United Kingdom at minus 6.5%, Japan at minus 5.2%, the United States at minus 5.9%, and Brazil and South Africa both in the minus-5% range.

Although the results are quite weak, the reaction was limited because a negative growth was already anticipated.

Stock prices rose globally, and risk-off sentiment retraced.

It isn’t that the coronavirus has settled, but rather that the market is reacting less to negative news from the virus, as it has already been priced in.

◎ Today's Focus

1) IMF and G20 Meetings

Yesterday, the IMF released its economic outlook, predicting global negative growth.

While negative growth in major economies is a concern, the spotlight this time is on negative growth and debt in emerging economies.

With emerging markets seeing negative growth and COVID-19 risk leading to selling of emergent currencies, emerging market currencies are depreciating.

When currencies weaken, the repayment amount of dollar-denominated debt increases.

Thus, the weaker the currency, the more debt accumulates, potentially leading to default as debt becomes unpayable.

There are concerns that emerging countries around the world could default, so IMF and G7 are considering countermeasures.

Today, the G20 is in session, so attention is on whether countermeasures for emerging economies will be announced.

Since most of the debt of emerging economies is held by China, it is also crucial whether China can present countermeasures.

2) Canada Policy Rate

Today's announcement is expected to keep the Canadian policy rate unchanged.

Under the current COVID-19 situation, the efficacy of monetary policy is limited, and as a central bank that has already implemented several emergency rate cuts, there may be little more they can do.

In today’s Bank of Canada monetary policy decision meeting, no new policy measures are expected.

What to watch for are the statement and press conference, and how Canada’s economy is viewed.

Also of interest is how the decline in crude oil prices affects the Canadian economy.

◎ Today's Event Schedule

April 15 (Wednesday)

IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings (video conference, until 16th)
G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (video conference)

09:30　AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence

15:45　EUR France HICP (Consumer Price Index)

16:00　EUR Spain HICP (Consumer Price Index)

16:30　SEK Sweden CPI (Consumer Price Index)

17:00　EUR Italy HICP (Consumer Price Index)

21:30　USD U.S. Retail Sales

23:00　CADBank of Canada (BOC) Policy Rate and Statement

23:30　USDCrude Oil Inventories

April 16 (Thursday)

00:15　CADPowell-BOC Governor Press Conference

02:00　USD Bositis’ Atlanta Fed President Speech (Voting member in 2021)

03:00　USD Beige Book (Federal Reserve)

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